May 21: Leading Indicators up 1%

Initial Claims decreased to 631,000 for the week ending 05/16, 12,000 below last week’s level of 643,000 (originally reported at 637,000), marking the 16th consecutive week filings surpassed 600,000.  The 4-week moving average was 628,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 632,000.  The increase in unemployment filings last week were cited from increased layoffs in automobile industries in Michigan, with a weekly increase above 16,000 which was slightly offset by a decrease ofover 10,000 filings in California from fewer layoffs in the services industry.

The Conference Boards’ Leading Indicators Index increased by 1% to 99.0 (2004=100) in April, which is the first increase in 7 months, following a -0.2% reduction in March. Positive contributions to the index were stock prices, interest rate spread, the index of consumer expectations, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), average weekly manufacturing hours, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials. The negative contributions to the index were real money supply, building permits, and manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods

The Coincident Indicators decreased by 0.2% to 101.1 (2004=100), following a decrease of 0.6% in March. The positive contributions to the index were personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales, while employees on nonagricultural payrolls and industrial production. more than offset those positive contributions.

The Lagging Indicators decreased by 0.5% in April to 112.5 (2004=100). Consumer installment credit to personal income was the only positive contribution to the index while average prime rate charged by banks was unaffected in March, and the remaining 5 components - commercial and industrial loans outstanding, average duration of unemployment (inverted), change in labor cost per unit of output, change in CPI for services, and ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales – made negative contributions to the index.

Upcoming Releases
Case-Shiller Home Prices (05/26 at 9:00 AM EST)
Consumer Confidence (05/26 at 10:00 AM EST)
Existing Home Sales (05/27 at 10:00 AM EST)

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