Jul 2: Unemployment Rate 9.5%

The Unemployment Rate for June increased to 9.5%, the highest level in 25 years, expected to increase to 9.6%, following a 9.4% reading in May, 8.9% in April, and 8.5% reading in March; in other words, the unemployment rate increased by 1% in the 2nd quarter of 2009.   Nonfarm Payrolls fell by 467,000, with layoffs much quicker than expected 356,000, after decreasing by a revised 3224,000 in May, revised from 342,000.  Job losses were steepest in manufacturing, professional and business services, and construction.  Since the start of the recession, December 2007, 7.2 million jobs have been lost, translating to an increase of the unemployment rate by 4.6 percentage points.  Most concerning is the number of long-term unemployed, which constitutes as those who were jobless for 27 weeks or more, increased by 433,000 over the month to 4.4 million, translating to 3 out every 10 unemployed persons undergoing long term unemployment.  The Average Workweek shortened to 33 hours from 33.1 hours, the lowest level since 1964 when the series started being collected.  Average Hourly Earnings were not phased in June.

Initial Claims decreased by 16,000 to 614,000 for the week ending 6/27 from 630,000 the previous week (revised upward from 627,000).  Filings were expected to be reported at 624,000 by analysts.  The 4-week moving average was 615,250, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average.  Increased filings for the week ending 6/20 were mostly a consequences of increased filings in California (+14,750), cited from increased layoffs in the services industry. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment last week was 6,702,000, an decrease of 53,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,755,000, decreasing the insured unemployment rate down to 5.0% from the revised rate of 5.1% last week.

Factory Orders are up by 1.2% in May to $347.9 billion, were expected to increase by 0.8%, and are up 3 of the past 4 months, after increasing by 0.5% in April (revised downward from a 0.7% advancement), falling by 1.9% in March and increasing by 0.7% in February. Excluding transportation, new factory orders also increased, by 0.8%. Over the past 12 months, the volume of new orders had fallen by 23.3%.

Upcoming Releases
ISM Services Index (07/06 at 10:00 AM EST)
ABC News/Washington Post Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (07/07 at 5:00 PM EST)
Consumer Credit (07/08 at 3:00 PM EST)
Wholesale Inventories (07/09 at 10:00 AM EST)