This Wednesday likely marks an apex to this Global Week Ahead.

On Wednesday, the U.S. FOMC should not move its Fed Funds rate. Traders’ focus is on guidance. Keep a close eye on the ‘dot plot.’ That will be issued. Fed funds futures markets show the level of trader pessimism. It is not until the Fed’s Dec. meeting the chances of a 25 bps hike moves above 50%.

I declare this: If U.K. voters come together and vote “stay” to the European Union; AND the July round of U.S. non-farm jobs numbers rebound (which very low U.S. unemployment claims out this week argue for); there will be a big rebound to risk taking. Risk markets can run hard all the way into the U.S. Presidential election with the Fed and the Brexit vote safely out of the way.

A July Fed rate hike has far higher odds -- if and when the U.K. voters say “stay” to the European Union and good U.S. jobs data show up -- in a short couple of weeks. Sept. and Nov. meetings will see the Fed get out of the way of the U.S. Presidential election.

My very short-term weekly message is different. Worries about a bona fide Brexit -- up to the June 23^rd vote in the U.K. -- should build. Before this vote, equities have taken a hit as “risk-off” worry ramps up.

Investors continue to seek “safety” in government bonds, the yen and gold. The Japanese yen tends to strengthen in times of investor stress. At ¥106, the yen’s current level flirts with lows last seen in October 2014. It can go further towards 100 in the next 10 days.

Worry has also grown about record low government bond yields — the result of central banks’ negative interest rate policies (NIRP) and asset purchase programs. Bears say these radical policies distort the global financial system.

The ECB and BoJ introduced NIRP and buy massive amounts of bonds in their respective attempts to lift GDP growth. This pushed 10-year government bond yields to record lows at 0.02% in Europe and -0.16% in Japan. Coming along for the ride down, U.S. 10-year Treasuries trade at 1.63%. If that level sticks into the close on Monday, it will be the lowest since May 2013. 

As a PhD. economist, I have less negative rate worry than the market has, away from the financials. Advanced country central banks -- particularly after the ramp-up in supervision with Dodd-Frank and Basel accords -- have enormous teams watching individual bank loans and balance sheet conditions.

I agree. Banks can’t like this negative rate landscape. But central banks and governments have to get global growth up. Negative rates will stick around until central banks see a meaningful rise in global GDP growth. Banks’ health will likely improve, with a decline in loan default rates and a rise in loan growth, in an improving future scenario. That scenario comes to pass with higher GDP growth.

Post the Brexit vote -- and maybe before it if polls turn -- I can get bullish.

Fresh Zacks VGM scores at A with a Zacks #1 Rank on June 11^th are—

World Point Terminals : The company owns, operates, develops and acquires terminals and other assets relating to the storage of light refined products, heavy refined products and crude oil.

The company's storage terminals are located in the East Coast, Gulf Coast and Midwest regions of the United States. It provides terminal-ing and storage of light refined products.

Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR Quick QuoteLXFR - Free Report) :The Company is a materials technology company specializing in the design, manufacture and supply of high-performance materials, components and gas cylinders.

The company had two divisions, Elektron and Gas Cylinders. Luxfer Holdings PLC is based in Salford, U.K.

Sanmina Corporation (SANM Quick QuoteSANM - Free Report) :The company is engaged in providing electronics contract manufacturing services.

It focuses on engineering and fabricating complex semiconductor components and also on providing complete end-to-end supply chain solutions to Original Equipment Manufacturers. Sanmina Corporation, formerly known as Sanmina-SCI Corp., is based in San Jose, CA.

Here are the key global/macro data this week—

On Monday, Brazil’s formal job creation looks to decline to -80K from -62K.

OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

On Tuesday, Japan’s preliminary industrial production numbers may move markets. Look for anything better than +0.3% m/m and -3.5% y/y as a beat.

Spain’s HICP should post a -1.1% y/y number, the same as last month. Italy’s HICP should be -0.3% y/y.

Eurozone industrial production looks to be +1.4% y/y, much better than the prior +0.2% y/y data.

Brazil’s broad retail sales should be worse at -0.5% y/y, worse than the prior -7.9% data.

U.S. retail sales, in contrast, should be up +0.4% m/m, ex-auto.

The IEA releases its monthly oil market report.

On Wednesday, France’s HICP should be up +0.3% m/m.

The U.K.’s ILO unemployment rate should be 5.1%.

Italy’s seasonally adjusted GDP should be +2.7% q/q.

The U.S. PPI looks pretty flat at +0.1% m/m.

The FOMC Fed Funds rate doesn’t look to change from 0.5%.

The FOMC meeting and press conference will be the highlight of this Global Week Ahead.

On Thursday, the BoJ will announce its overnight policy rate. Governor Kuroda’s press conference will be worth watching closely for negative rate moves.

The U.K.’s retail sales (ex-auto) should be up +3.8% y/y from +4.2% y/y.

The BoE should hold a monetary policy meeting and releases its latest rate decision.  The one is the last before the Brexit vote.  The Gov. Carney press conference will be very interesting.

U.S. initial claims should be +270K.

The NAHB builders survey should be 59.

On Friday, the Eurozone finance ministers meet in Brussels and the IMF’s Lagarde speaks in Vienna.

U.S. building permits should be 1145K, up from 1116K.  Housing starts should be 1150K, up from 1172K.

The ECB’s Draghi speaks in Munich.