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Can Dunkin' Brands (DNKN) Q2 Earnings Spring a Surprise?

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Dunkin' Brands Group, Inc. is set to report second-quarter 2016 results on Jul 21, before the market opens.

Last quarter, the company posted a positive earnings surprise of 2.33%. In fact, the company has delivered positive surprises in the trailing four quarters, translating to an average positive surprise of 3.12%.

Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

Dunkin' Brands operates through the Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin-Robbins brands. The company’s strategic initiatives to boost sales such as more drive-through locations, menu innovation and breakfast-menu optimization should boost second quarter results. Meanwhile, the newly launched digital initiatives and global expansion, mainly in the emerging markets, are likely to aid the company's international sales.

Further, the company’s renewed multi-year partnership with Keurig Green Mountain and J.M. Smucker, signed in 2015, to manufacture, market, distribute and sell Dunkin' K-Cup pods at retailers in the U.S. would continue to benefit the top line.

Nevertheless, like other restaurant chains, Dunkin' Brands' upcoming results are likely to be hurt by high labor expenses.. Also, the breakfast segment – historically one of Dunkin' Brands' most profitable divisions – is facing immense competition with more companies grabbing market share. This would hurt the company’s top line in the near term.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Dunkin’ Brands is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Its Earnings ESP is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at 56 cents.  

DUNKIN BRANDS Price and EPS Surprise

DUNKIN BRANDS Price and EPS Surprise | DUNKIN BRANDS Quote

Zacks Rank: Dunkin' Brands' Zacks Rank #3 when combined with a 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks in the restaurant industry that investors may consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA - Free Report) , with an Earnings ESP of +3.7% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK - Free Report) , with an Earnings ESP of +1.15% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK - Free Report) , with an Earnings ESP of +7.69% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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