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Varian (VAR): What's in Store for the Stock in Q3 Earnings?

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We expect Varian Medical Systems Inc. to beat earnings when it reports third-quarter 2016 results on Jul 27. Last quarter, the company reported earnings of $1.09 per share, which exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny.

We note that, on an average, Varian posted a positive earnings surprise of 3.19% over the last four quarters.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Varian is likely to beat earnings because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.

Zacks ESP: Varian’s Earnings ESP stands at +0.86%. This is because the company’s Most Accurate estimate is $1.18, whereas the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.17. A favorable ESP serves as a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive surprise.  

Zacks Rank: Varian currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings estimates. Conversely, Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.

The combination of Varian’s Zacks Rank #3 and +0.86% ESP makes us reasonably confident of an earnings beat.

Factors at Play

We believe Varian’s strong product pipeline fortifies the company’s market position. Products like Vital-Beam accelerator, True-Beam systems, Rapid-Plan, InSightive analytics software are key growth drivers. The company also expects the Proton system to deliver massive growth opportunities, despite a smaller financing base.

VARIAN MEDICAL Price and EPS Surprise

VARIAN MEDICAL Price and EPS Surprise | VARIAN MEDICAL Quote

Moreover, the streak of order wins from the emerging markets outside the U.S., like Turkey, Australia, China, BRICA region, Latin America, APAC region, Middle East and England is also enhancing the company’s growth prospects.

Notably, for the third quarter of fiscal 2016, Varian expects revenues to remain flat with the year-ago quarter level while adjusted earnings are projected in the band of $1.16–$1.20.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:  

CytRx Corporation , with an earnings ESP of +15.00% and a Zacks Rank #1.

CR Bard Inc Inc , with an earnings ESP of +0.41% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY - Free Report) , with an earnings ESP of +1.49% and a Zacks Rank #1.

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