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Jack in the Box (JACK) Q3 Earnings: A Beat in the Cards?

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We expect Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK - Free Report) to beat earnings estimates when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2016 results on Aug 3, after the market closes.

Last quarter, the company posted a positive earnings surprise of 21.43%. In fact, the company exceeded earnings estimates in two out of the trailing four quarters, with an average positive earnings surprise of 2.46%. Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

JACK IN THE BOX Price and EPS Surprise

JACK IN THE BOX Price and EPS Surprise | JACK IN THE BOX Quote

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Jack in the Box is likely to beat earnings because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, stands at +1.15%. This is meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise.

Zacks Rank: Jack in the Box holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which when combined with positive ESP makes us confident of an earnings beat.

The Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 and 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.

Factors to Consider

Jack in the Box’s same-store sales have been consistently outperforming the industry over the past several quarters. Menu innovation backed by a robust pricing strategy and double-digit growth in catering sales remain the key growth drivers. Its Qdoba brand has been witnessing comps growth and the trend is likely to continue in the third quarter also supported by the new pricing structure and the company’s focus on menu innovation.

The company also started testing a digital platform, which should boost sales and traffic in the upcoming quarter. Moreover, during the second quarter conference call the company announced that the third quarter will feature two of the biggest catering events of the year – Cinco de Mayo and Graduations. The company is currently focusing a lot on catering sales. This is expected to boost its sales in the to-be-reported quarter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some restaurant stocks that investors may consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Carrols Restaurant Group Inc. (TAST - Free Report) with an Earnings ESP of +4.35% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Dave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY - Free Report) with an Earnings ESP of +2.27% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Shake Shak Inc. (SHAK - Free Report) with an Earnings ESP of +7.69% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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