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What's in the Cards for Atlassian (TEAM) in Q4 Earnings?

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Atlassian Corporation Plc (TEAM - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2016 results on Aug 4. Last quarter, the company posted a positive earnings surprise of 100%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

Atlassian is engaged in designing, developing, licensing and maintenance of software and the provisioning of software hosting services. It offers tools for software developers consisting of FishEye, Bamboo and SourceTree. Atlassian launched its IPO on Dec 9, 2015.

Most recently, the company announced the acquisition of StatusPage. According to the president of Atlassian, Jay Simons, "The StatusPage team has built an incredible platform that is a natural extension of the software development and IT operations processes where Atlassian is a leader. Adding StatusPage will enhance Atlassian's product offering so we can continue helping teams ship and operate great software."

We believe that continuous investments in product development (mainly the launch of three purpose-built versions of JIRA products) and a significant number of customers on an active subscription or maintenance agreement are a few of the positives.
 

ATLASSIAN CP-A Price and EPS Surprise

ATLASSIAN CP-A Price and EPS Surprise | ATLASSIAN CP-A Quote

 

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Atlassian is likely to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in its upcoming release. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. Unfortunately, this is not the case here as elaborated below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Atlassian is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of 6 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: Atlassian has a Zacks Rank #3. Though Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 increases the predictive power of ESP, the company’s ESP of 0.00% makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies, which are worth considering as our model shows that they have the right combination of the two elements needed to post an earnings beat:

  • CDK Global, Inc. , with an Earnings ESP of +4.26% and a Zacks Rank #1
  • Qualys, Inc. (QLYS - Free Report) , with an Earnings ESP of +12.50% and a Zacks Rank #3
  • CenturyLink, Inc. with an Earnings ESP of +1.70% and a Zacks Rank #3

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