Friday, August 26, 2016

The second read for Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was released before the bell today, further illustrating the paltry growth we’ve seen in the first half of 2016. 1.1% growth in the quarter is down a tenth of a percent from the initial read. Still an improvement from Q1’s 0.8% growth, it remains sluggish and currently reliant on the second half of the year to pick up the pace.

July’s Trade Deficit read also came out this morning, and at $59.3 billion it is roughly $4 billion lower than analysts had anticipated. The June month revision went higher to $64.5 billion, but even still — both sequentially and compared to estimates, this was an improved data point compared to expectations.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks this morning from the FOMC meeting in Jackson Hole, WY in what has become a much-anticipated statement on the health of the economy and the likelihood of an interest rate increase. Common wisdom had been completely discounting the chances of a September hike until earlier this week, when several Fed presidents issued statements regarding their readiness to issue a quarter-point increase.

It would seem the pressures are mounting for Yellen to turn more hawkish as well, with U.S. jobs numbers in good shape, slow economic growth and no rampant inflation. Yet negative rates in key regions across the globe speak to a downward economic trajectory outside the U.S. that a domestic rate-hike may unintentionally inflame.

Mark Vickery
Senior Editor