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Oracle (ORCL) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Oracle Corporation (ORCL - Free Report) is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2017 earnings results on Sep 15.

Last quarter, it had posted a 1.30% negative surprise. The company, however, has registered an average positive earnings surprise of 1.50% over the past four quarters.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Price and EPS Surprise

 

Price and EPS Surprise | Quote

Factors to Consider

Oracle, which already enjoys a leading position in the enterprise software and database management system (DBMS) software market, has also been gaining ground on its cloud endeavors. Specifically, the company’s offerings in SaaS, PaaS and Big Data divisions have gained significant momentum in the past few quarters.

In fourth-quarter 2016, total cloud revenues, including infrastructure as a service (IaaS), were up 49% (up 51% on constant currency basis) to $859 million. Cloud SaaS and PaaS revenues jumped 66% year over year (up 68% on constant currency) to $690 million. Moreover, SaaS and PaaS billings surged 38% year over year, driven by an expanding customer base.

Oracle expects this momentum to continue in fiscal 2017. For the first quarter, the company anticipates SaaS and PaaS revenues to grow in the range of 75% to 80%. Further, total revenues are expected to grow in the range of 2% to 5%, while non-GAAP earnings are estimated to be in the range of 56 to 60 cents per share, on a constant currency basis.

However, Oracle received adverse ruling in both of its long running lawsuits against Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise, which can impact its financials. Although the company is expected to appeal against the rulings, we believe the unfavorable decisions will remain an overhang on the stock in the near term.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Oracle is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Oracle currently has an Earnings ESP of -1.85% as the Most Accurate estimate of 53 cents is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 54 cents.

Zacks Rank: Oracle has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stock to Consider

The following stocks can be considered at the moment, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases:

Cognex Corp (CGNX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.33% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Seagate Technology (STX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.33% and a Zacks Rank #1.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Interested in IPOs? Check out the special edition of Zacks Friday Finish Line below, where Editor Maddy Johnson and Content Writer Ryan McQueeney interview Kathleen Smith of Renaissance Capital about the IPO market in 2016 (see part two here).

 

 

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