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Alexion (ALXN) Q3 Earnings: Can the Stock Pull a Surprise?
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Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is scheduled to report third-quarter 2016 results on Oct 27, before the opening bell.
The company’s track record has been mixed. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten estimates on two occasions. Overall, Alexion has posted an average positive earnings surprise of 3.12% for the four trailing quarters.
Last quarter, the company recorded a positive earnings surprise of 2.20%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Factors Likely to Impact Q3 Results
Alexion’s key growth driver, Soliris, should continue to perform well in the core territories including the U.S., the EU and Japan, driven by a consistently increasing new patient population in the paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome indications. At its last quarterly earnings call, Alexion reiterated its 2016 Soliris guidance of $2.835–$2.875 billion. Sales are, however, expected to continue being hurt by macroeconomic weakness in Latin America.
Strensiq, a new growth catalyst for Alexion, has seen encouraging uptake in the early stages of its launch. Revenues continue to be boosted by a growing hypophosphatasia (HPP) patient population, including both children and adults with pediatric-onset disease, driven by HPP disease awareness and diagnostic initiatives. The strong initial uptake of Strensiq prompted the company to increase its metabolic revenue guidance to $200 million to $220 million from the previous expectations of $180–$200 million. Meanwhile, the company is working on the launches of both Strensiq and Kanuma by increasing awareness through diagnostic and disease education programs.
In the third quarter of 2016, total revenue is expected in the range of $780–$790 million, including foreign exchange headwinds of $17–$20 million.
Alexion had guided expenses at the high end of its prior projection mainly due to pipeline investments, expansion of the global commercial launches of Strensiq and Kanuma, and unfavorable currency movement. Consequently, the company lowered its 2016 earnings projection to the range of $4.50 to $4.65 (previous guidance: $5.00–$5.20) per share. For the third quarter, it anticipates earnings in the range of $1.14–$1.18 per share.
On the third-quarter call, investor focus will be on the company’s performance, and sales ramp-up of Strensiq and Kanuma.
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Alexion is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here, as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%, since both the Most Accurate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $1.04.
Zacks Rank: Although Alexion’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP its 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.
Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are a couple of health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
The Earnings ESP for ImmunoGen, Inc. is +5.41% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release earnings on Oct 28.
Novartis AG (NVS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to report quarterly numbers on Oct 25.
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Alexion (ALXN) Q3 Earnings: Can the Stock Pull a Surprise?
Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is scheduled to report third-quarter 2016 results on Oct 27, before the opening bell.
The company’s track record has been mixed. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten estimates on two occasions. Overall, Alexion has posted an average positive earnings surprise of 3.12% for the four trailing quarters.
Last quarter, the company recorded a positive earnings surprise of 2.20%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Factors Likely to Impact Q3 Results
Alexion’s key growth driver, Soliris, should continue to perform well in the core territories including the U.S., the EU and Japan, driven by a consistently increasing new patient population in the paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome indications. At its last quarterly earnings call, Alexion reiterated its 2016 Soliris guidance of $2.835–$2.875 billion. Sales are, however, expected to continue being hurt by macroeconomic weakness in Latin America.
Strensiq, a new growth catalyst for Alexion, has seen encouraging uptake in the early stages of its launch. Revenues continue to be boosted by a growing hypophosphatasia (HPP) patient population, including both children and adults with pediatric-onset disease, driven by HPP disease awareness and diagnostic initiatives. The strong initial uptake of Strensiq prompted the company to increase its metabolic revenue guidance to $200 million to $220 million from the previous expectations of $180–$200 million. Meanwhile, the company is working on the launches of both Strensiq and Kanuma by increasing awareness through diagnostic and disease education programs.
In the third quarter of 2016, total revenue is expected in the range of $780–$790 million, including foreign exchange headwinds of $17–$20 million.
Alexion had guided expenses at the high end of its prior projection mainly due to pipeline investments, expansion of the global commercial launches of Strensiq and Kanuma, and unfavorable currency movement. Consequently, the company lowered its 2016 earnings projection to the range of $4.50 to $4.65 (previous guidance: $5.00–$5.20) per share. For the third quarter, it anticipates earnings in the range of $1.14–$1.18 per share.
On the third-quarter call, investor focus will be on the company’s performance, and sales ramp-up of Strensiq and Kanuma.
ALEXION PHARMA Price and EPS Surprise
ALEXION PHARMA Price and EPS Surprise | ALEXION PHARMA Quote
What Our Model Indicates
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Alexion is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here, as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%, since both the Most Accurate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $1.04.
Zacks Rank: Although Alexion’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP its 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.
Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are a couple of health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Amgen Inc. (AMGN - Free Report) is expected to report results on Oct 26. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.79% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Earnings ESP for ImmunoGen, Inc. is +5.41% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release earnings on Oct 28.
Novartis AG (NVS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to report quarterly numbers on Oct 25.
Confidential from Zacks
Beyond this Analyst Blog, would you like to see Zacks' best recommendations that are not available to the public? Our Executive VP, Steve Reitmeister, knows when key trades are about to be triggered and which of our experts has the hottest hand. Click to see them now>>