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Endocyte (ECYT): Can the Stock Surprise in Q3 Earnings?

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Endocyte, Inc. is expected to report third-quarter 2016 results on Nov 1. The company has an impressive track record, having beaten estimates on three of the trailing four quarters and missing the same once. Overall, the company has recorded an average positive surprise of 7.44%.

In the last reported quarter, Endocyte posted a positive surprise of 3.85%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this quarter.

Factors at Play

Being a development-stage biotech company, Endocyte does not have any approved product in its portfolio. Investors are thus expected to keep an eye on pipeline development at the company. Endocyte’s pipeline presently comprises EC1456 and EC1169.

Both EC1456 and EC1169 have demonstrated anti-tumor activity during the dose-escalation phase of their respective phase I studies. The activity observed to date with EC1169 in prostate cancer patients has been encouraging. In the current quarter, the company expects to move the 6.5 mg/m2 dose into the expansion phase of the study, which will evaluate EC1169 in patients selected as prostate specific membrane antigen-positive using its companion imaging agent, EC0652.

Meanwhile, the company has also progressed with the expansion of phase I study on EC1456 using its companion imaging agent, etarfolatide, to select folate receptor-positive non-small cell lung cancer patients. A dose of 6.0 mg/m2 twice per week is being used in the expansion phase of the study.

We expect R&D expenses to be higher as the company continues with the dose-escalation studies on EC1456 and EC1169.

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Endocyte is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat estimates. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 27 cents.

Zacks Rank: Endocyte’s Zacks Rank #3, when combined with its 0.00% ESP, makes surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with Zacks Ranks #4 or #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing a negative estimate revision momentum.

Please check our Earnings ESP Filter that enables you find stocks that are expected to come out with earnings surprises.

ENDOCYTE INC Price and EPS Surprise

 

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some health care stocks that you may want to consider instead, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Shire plc is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov 1. It has an Earnings ESP of +1.25% and a Zacks Rank #2.

The Earnings ESP for Aerie Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is +8.57% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release third-quarter results on Nov 1.

ARIAD Pharmaceuticals Inc. is expected to report third-quarter results on Nov 1. It has an Earnings ESP of +5.26% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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