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Citrix Systems (CTXS) Q4 Earnings: A Surprise in Store?

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Citrix Systems Inc. () is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2016 results on Jan 25, after the market closes.

Last quarter, the company recorded a positive earnings surprise of 14.43%. Moreover, the company beat estimates in each of the last four quarters with the average earnings surprise of 25.12%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play this Quarter

A major positive for Citrix is its impressive product portfolio, which it keeps enhancing through the implementation of cutting-edge technology. Citrix also raised its earnings per share guidance (adjusted basis) for 2016 to a band of $5.18–$5.20 from $5.00–$5.10. We also expect the company’s acquisition strategy to benefit its performance going forward.

However, the company faces risks from adverse foreign exchange movements due to its vast global presence. Citrix also faces stiff competition from peers like Exa Corp. and Symantec Corp. .

We note that shares of the company outperformed the Zacks categorized Computer Software industry in the past three months. The company gained 8.41% over the period, while the industry registered an increase of only 5.64%.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Citrix is likely to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or at least 3 (Hold) for this to happen. Unfortunately, this is not the case here as elaborated below.

Zacks ESP: Citrixhas an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at $1.26. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Citrix carries a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Conversely, we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Citrix Systems Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Citrix Systems Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise | Citrix Systems Inc. Quote

Stocks to Consider

Here is a stock which we believe has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.28% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to report second-quarter fiscal 2017 earnings on Jan 26.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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