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Kimco Realty (KIM) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM - Free Report) is slated to report fourth quarter and 2016 results on Feb 2, 2017 after the market closes.

Last quarter, this New Hyde Park, NY-based retail real estate investment trust (“REIT”) beat the estimates significantly. In the trailing four quarters, the company beat estimates on two occasions while posting in-line results in the other two. Overall, in the past one year, the company recorded an average beat of 32.31%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Kimco Realty Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
 

Kimco Realty Corporation Price and EPS Surprise | Kimco Realty Corporation Quote

Factors to Consider

Kimco is continuing with its strategic 2020 Vision. The company is making premium asset purchase in key major markets in the U.S., carrying out joint-venture buyouts and making progress in its simplification efforts. Specifically, the company has been lowering the number of joint ventures. In fact, riding high on its portfolio transformation activities, it made acquisitions totaling $88.7 million in the fourth quarter. Moreover, the company accrued $139.7 million from dispositions during the quarter.

Kimco’s premium properties, located in high-growth areas and presence of well-capitalized retailers in its tenant roster augur well. Per a recent CBRE Group, Inc. study, during the fourth quarter, sentiments of the consumers rebounded, after a small drop in the third quarter. Also, during the quarter, demand for retail space remained steady.

However, though encouraging for the long term, the earnings-dilution effect of high disposition activity cannot be averted. These might hurt the company’s growth momentum in the to-be-reported quarter.

Kimco’s activities during the quarter could not gain adequate analyst confidence. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for funds from operations remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Kimco will beat on earnings this season. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. However, that is not the case here as you will see below.  
 
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks ESP: Both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate currently stand at 38 cents, which translates into an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: Kimco currently has a Zacks Rank #3. Though this increases the predictive power of ESP, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.
 
We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a couple of REITs that you may want to consider as our model shows that they also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Camden Property Trust (CPT - Free Report) , expected to release earnings results on Feb 7, has an Earnings ESP of +0.88% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Ashford Hospitality Prime, Inc. , expected to release earnings results on Feb 22, has an Earnings ESP of +16.67% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Note: All EPS numbers presented in this write up represent funds from operations (FFO) per share. FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income.

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