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HCP Inc. (HCP) Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

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HCP Inc. (HCP - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2016 results on Feb 13, before the opening bell.

Last quarter, this healthcare real estate investment trust (“REIT”) had delivered a positive surprise of 1.41% in terms of funds from operations (“FFO”) per share. Over the trailing four quarters, the company exceeded estimates in three quarters, resulting in an average positive surprise of 2.42%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter FFO per share is currently pegged at 57 cents.

This is depicted in the graph below.

Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to this announcement.

Factors to Consider

HCP has a diversified, well-balanced portfolio in the healthcare sector. The company is likely to benefit in the to-be-reported quarter from rising healthcare spending and a growing aging population. Further, strategic investments, tie-ups and acquisitions are anticipated to drive decent cash flows.

Notably, in Oct 2016, the company closed the earlier announced spin-off of its HCR ManorCare portfolio of skilled nursing and assisted living assets, as well as certain other assets, into Quality Care Properties, Inc. The company also opted for selling 64 communities triple-net leased to Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. for $1.125 billion to affiliates of Blackstone Real Estate Partners VIII L.P.

However, growth might be hindered by cut-throat competition in its markets. In addition, there is increased supply in certain health care asset categories. Also, dilutive impact on earnings from sale of assets is unavoidable.

Moreover, overall, HCP’s performance during the quarter was inadequate to win analysts’ confidence. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate edged down 1.7% to 57 cents over the last 60 days.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that HCP will beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or at least 3 (Hold) for this to happen. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the percentage difference between the Most Accurate estimate of 56 cents and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 57 cents, is -1.75%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: HCP’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we also need to have a positive ESP to be confident of an earnings beat.

We caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks in the REIT sector that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to report a positive surprise this quarter:

EPR Properties (EPR - Free Report) , slated to release earnings results on Feb 28, has an Earnings ESP of +0.81% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

CubeSmart (CUBE - Free Report) , slated to release earnings results on Feb 16, has an Earnings ESP of +2.70% and a Zacks Rank #3.

STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG - Free Report) , scheduled to come up with its earnings release on Feb 16, has an Earnings ESP of +2.50% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Note: All EPS numbers presented in this write up represent funds from operations (FFO) per share. FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income.

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