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Alexion (ALXN) Q4 Earnings: Can the Stock Pull a Surprise?
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Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2016 results on Feb 16, before the opening bell.
The company’s track record has been mixed. While over the last four quarters, the company has beaten estimates on two occasions, Alexion posted an average positive earnings surprise of 1.68% for the four trailing quarters.
Last quarter, the company recorded a positive earnings surprise of 13.46%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Alexion‘s share price has increased 3.9% year to date, while the Zacks classified Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry gained 3%.
Factors Likely to Impact Q4 Results
Alexion’s top line should continue being driven by Soliris across geographies, robust launch momentum of Strensiq in initial countries, and early contribution from the launch of Kanuma in the U.S and Germany.
Alexion’s key growth driver, Soliris, should generate strong sales in the to-be-reported quarter in the core territories including the U.S., the EU and Japan, driven by a consistently increasing new patient population in both the indications it is approved for - paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS) indications.
Alexion markets Strensiq for the treatment of patients with pediatric-onset hypophosphatasia (HPP) and Kanuma for the treatment of patients with lysosomal acid lipase deficiency (LAL-D).
Strensiq continues to perform well with revenues benefiting from a growing number of patients (both children as well as adults with pediatric onset disease) owing to hypophosphatasia (HPP) disease awareness and diagnostic initiatives. These initiatives are leading to steady identification of new patients with HPP. The company expects Strensiq to be a strong additional growth driver in 2017 and beyond.
Kanuma continues to progress with the early stages of its launch in the U.S. and Germany with new patients starting on treatment. In order to reach out to more patients with LAL-D, diagnostic and disease education programs are currently underway. Moreover, these programs are being directed to target physicians so that patients with LAL-D receive a rapid and accurate diagnosis.
What Our Model Indicates
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Alexion is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat earnings.
However, that is not the case here, as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%, since both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $1.10. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Although Alexion’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP, its 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult. Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Here are a couple of health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Incyte Corp. (INCY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of is +85.71% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Feb 14.
AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +3.23% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Feb 14.
Zacks' Top 10 Stocks for 2017
In addition to the stocks discussed above, would you like to know about our 10 finest buy-and-hold tickers for the entirety of 2017?
Who wouldn't? As of early December, the 2016 Top 10 produced 5 double-digit winners including oil and natural gas giant Pioneer Natural Resources which racked up a stellar +50% gain. The new list is painstakingly hand-picked from 4,400 companies covered by the Zacks Rank. Be among the very first to see it>>
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Alexion (ALXN) Q4 Earnings: Can the Stock Pull a Surprise?
Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2016 results on Feb 16, before the opening bell.
The company’s track record has been mixed. While over the last four quarters, the company has beaten estimates on two occasions, Alexion posted an average positive earnings surprise of 1.68% for the four trailing quarters.
Last quarter, the company recorded a positive earnings surprise of 13.46%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Alexion‘s share price has increased 3.9% year to date, while the Zacks classified Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry gained 3%.
Factors Likely to Impact Q4 Results
Alexion’s top line should continue being driven by Soliris across geographies, robust launch momentum of Strensiq in initial countries, and early contribution from the launch of Kanuma in the U.S and Germany.
Alexion’s key growth driver, Soliris, should generate strong sales in the to-be-reported quarter in the core territories including the U.S., the EU and Japan, driven by a consistently increasing new patient population in both the indications it is approved for - paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS) indications.
Alexion markets Strensiq for the treatment of patients with pediatric-onset hypophosphatasia (HPP) and Kanuma for the treatment of patients with lysosomal acid lipase deficiency (LAL-D).
Strensiq continues to perform well with revenues benefiting from a growing number of patients (both children as well as adults with pediatric onset disease) owing to hypophosphatasia (HPP) disease awareness and diagnostic initiatives. These initiatives are leading to steady identification of new patients with HPP. The company expects Strensiq to be a strong additional growth driver in 2017 and beyond.
Kanuma continues to progress with the early stages of its launch in the U.S. and Germany with new patients starting on treatment. In order to reach out to more patients with LAL-D, diagnostic and disease education programs are currently underway. Moreover, these programs are being directed to target physicians so that patients with LAL-D receive a rapid and accurate diagnosis.
What Our Model Indicates
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Alexion is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat earnings.
However, that is not the case here, as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%, since both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $1.10. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Although Alexion’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP, its 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.
Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Quote
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are a couple of health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Incyte Corp. (INCY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of is +85.71% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Feb 14.
Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +5.56% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Feb 14. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1(Strong Buy) Rank stocks here.
AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +3.23% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Feb 14.
Zacks' Top 10 Stocks for 2017
In addition to the stocks discussed above, would you like to know about our 10 finest buy-and-hold tickers for the entirety of 2017?
Who wouldn't? As of early December, the 2016 Top 10 produced 5 double-digit winners including oil and natural gas giant Pioneer Natural Resources which racked up a stellar +50% gain. The new list is painstakingly hand-picked from 4,400 companies covered by the Zacks Rank. Be among the very first to see it>>