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Jack in the Box (JACK) Q1 Earnings: A Beat in the Cards?

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Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2017 results on Feb 22, after the market closes. We expect the company to surpass expectations.

Last quarter, Jack in the Box posted a positive earnings surprise of 17.05%. In fact, the company surpassed earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters, with an average beat of 12.94%.

Jack In The Box Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Jack in the Box is likely to beat on earnings because it has the perfect combination of the two key ingredients.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP for Jack in the Box is +2.42% because the Most Accurate estimate is pegged at $1.27 and the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.24. This is a meaningful indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Jack in the Box currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 or 3 (Hold) have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings estimates. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Conversely, we caution you against the Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5), which should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.

The combination of Jack in the Box’s favorable Zacks Rank and positive Earnings ESP makes us reasonably confident of an earnings beat.

What is Driving the Better-than-Expected Earnings?

Jack in the Box’s same-store sales have been consistently outperforming the industry over the past several quarters. Particularly, the company’s Qdoba brand has been witnessing comps growth on the back of menu innovation. We expect the trend to continue in the fiscal first quarter.

Meanwhile, increased marketing and remodeling efforts, along with investments in technology-driven initiatives should drive top-line growth. Moreover, the company is currently focusing deeply on catering sales and its breakfast menu. These are expected to boost its sales in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, a soft consumer spending environment in the U.S. restaurant space might hurt traffic and thereby comps in the to-be-reported quarter. Also, heightened competition in the breakfast and lunch day parts could keep sales growth under check.

In fact, for the fiscal first quarter, the company expects comps growth at the Jack in the Box restaurants in the range of 2–4% compared with the year-ago comps growth of 1.4%. For the Qdoba restaurants, same-store sales are projected to be flat to up 1% compared with the year-ago quarter comps growth of 1.5%.

Stocks to Consider

Jack in the Box is not the only company looking up this earnings season. Here are some other companies in the broader Retail-Wholesale sector to consider, as our model shows they also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Papa John’s International, Inc. (PZZA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.55% and a Zacks Rank #2.

SpartanNash Company (SPTN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.04% and a Zacks Rank #2.

The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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