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Making a proper distinction between fairly priced stocks and overpriced stocks is the key to investing success. However, the correctly priced and the overhyped toxic stocks are mingled in such a way in the marketplace that it is not easy to separate them. Investors who can figure out the overpriced stocks and dump them at the right time are the ones likely to make a profit.
In general, toxic stocks are burdened with huge debt loads and vulnerable to external shocks. Moreover, irrationally higher price of the toxic stocks are short-lived as the inherent value of these stocks is lower than their current price. Quite justifiably, if you own such toxic stocks for an inordinate period of time, you are sure to see huge erosion in your wealth.
Higher price of the toxic stocks can be ascribed to either an irrational exuberance associated with them or some serious fundamental drawbacks associated with them. If you own such stocks for long, you are likely to see a big loss in your wealth.
If you can, however, precisely pinpoint the toxic stocks, you may gain by resorting to an investing strategy called short selling. This strategy allows you to sell a stock first and then buy it when the price falls.
While short selling excels in bear markets, it typically loses money in bull markets.
So, just like identifying stocks with growth potential, spotting toxic stocks and dumping them at the right time is the key to safeguard your portfolio from big losses or make profits by short selling them.
Screening Criteria
Here is a winning strategy that will help you to identify overpriced toxic stocks:
Most recent Debt/Equity Ratio greater than the median industry average: High debt/equity ratio implies high leverage. High leverage indicates a huge level of repayment that the company has to make in connection with the debt amount.
P/E using 12-month forward EPS estimate greater than 50: A very high forward P/E implies that a stock is highly overvalued.
% Change in F (1) and F (2) Estimate (12 Weeks) less than -5: Negative EPS estimate revision for this and the next fiscal year during the past 12 weeks points to analysts’ pessimism.
Zacks Rank more than or equal to #3 (Hold): We have not considered Buy-rated stocks that generally outperform the market.
Here are five of the 18 toxic stocks that showed up on the screen:
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF - Free Report) is a New Albany, OH-based specialty retailer. Over the past one-month period, its 2017 estimate remained unchanged at a loss of 6 cents. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Boston, MA-based, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX - Free Report) is a bio-technology company. Over the past one-month period, the 2017 estimate declined 34.2% to 48 cents. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3.
Etsy, Inc. (ETSY - Free Report) is a Brooklyn, NY-based Internet services company. It operates a marketplace to make, sell and buy goods online and offline worldwide. Over the last 30 days, its 2017 estimate remained unchanged at a loss of 7 cents. The company has a Zacks Rank #3.
Wilmington, DE-based Incyte Corporation (INCY - Free Report) is a drug discovery company. Over the last 30 days, its 2017 estimate declined 58.8% to 56 cents per share. Incyte carries a Zacks Rank #5.
Get the rest of the stocks on the list and start putting this and other ideas to the test. It can all be done with the Research Wizard stock picking and backtesting software.
The Research Wizard is a great place to begin. It's easy to use. Everything is in plain language. And it's very intuitive. Start your Research Wizard trial today. And the next time you read an economic report, open up the Research Wizard, plug your finds in, and see what gems come out.
Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material.
Zacks Restaurant Recommendations: In addition to dining at these special places, you can feast on their stock shares. A Zacks Special Report spotlights 5 recent IPOs to watch plus 2 stocks that offer immediate promise in a booming sector. Download it free »
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5 Toxic Stocks to Abandon or Play Short Right Now
Making a proper distinction between fairly priced stocks and overpriced stocks is the key to investing success. However, the correctly priced and the overhyped toxic stocks are mingled in such a way in the marketplace that it is not easy to separate them. Investors who can figure out the overpriced stocks and dump them at the right time are the ones likely to make a profit.
In general, toxic stocks are burdened with huge debt loads and vulnerable to external shocks. Moreover, irrationally higher price of the toxic stocks are short-lived as the inherent value of these stocks is lower than their current price. Quite justifiably, if you own such toxic stocks for an inordinate period of time, you are sure to see huge erosion in your wealth.
Higher price of the toxic stocks can be ascribed to either an irrational exuberance associated with them or some serious fundamental drawbacks associated with them. If you own such stocks for long, you are likely to see a big loss in your wealth.
If you can, however, precisely pinpoint the toxic stocks, you may gain by resorting to an investing strategy called short selling. This strategy allows you to sell a stock first and then buy it when the price falls.
While short selling excels in bear markets, it typically loses money in bull markets.
So, just like identifying stocks with growth potential, spotting toxic stocks and dumping them at the right time is the key to safeguard your portfolio from big losses or make profits by short selling them.
Screening Criteria
Here is a winning strategy that will help you to identify overpriced toxic stocks:
Most recent Debt/Equity Ratio greater than the median industry average: High debt/equity ratio implies high leverage. High leverage indicates a huge level of repayment that the company has to make in connection with the debt amount.
P/E using 12-month forward EPS estimate greater than 50: A very high forward P/E implies that a stock is highly overvalued.
% Change in F (1) and F (2) Estimate (12 Weeks) less than -5: Negative EPS estimate revision for this and the next fiscal year during the past 12 weeks points to analysts’ pessimism.
Zacks Rank more than or equal to #3 (Hold): We have not considered Buy-rated stocks that generally outperform the market.
Here are five of the 18 toxic stocks that showed up on the screen:
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF - Free Report) is a New Albany, OH-based specialty retailer. Over the past one-month period, its 2017 estimate remained unchanged at a loss of 6 cents. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV - Free Report) is a Beverly Hills, CA-based live entertainment company. Over the past 60 days, its 2017 estimate declined 9.5% to 19 cents. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Boston, MA-based, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX - Free Report) is a bio-technology company. Over the past one-month period, the 2017 estimate declined 34.2% to 48 cents. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3.
Etsy, Inc. (ETSY - Free Report) is a Brooklyn, NY-based Internet services company. It operates a marketplace to make, sell and buy goods online and offline worldwide. Over the last 30 days, its 2017 estimate remained unchanged at a loss of 7 cents. The company has a Zacks Rank #3.
Wilmington, DE-based Incyte Corporation (INCY - Free Report) is a drug discovery company. Over the last 30 days, its 2017 estimate declined 58.8% to 56 cents per share. Incyte carries a Zacks Rank #5.
Get the rest of the stocks on the list and start putting this and other ideas to the test. It can all be done with the Research Wizard stock picking and backtesting software.
The Research Wizard is a great place to begin. It's easy to use. Everything is in plain language. And it's very intuitive. Start your Research Wizard trial today. And the next time you read an economic report, open up the Research Wizard, plug your finds in, and see what gems come out.
Click here to sign up for a free trial to the Research Wizard today.
Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material.
Disclosure: Performance information for Zacks’ portfolios and strategies are available at: https://www.zacks.com/performance.
Zacks Restaurant Recommendations: In addition to dining at these special places, you can feast on their stock shares. A Zacks Special Report spotlights 5 recent IPOs to watch plus 2 stocks that offer immediate promise in a booming sector. Download it free »