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To Hike Or Not to Hike - That Is the Question

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Friday, March 3, 2017

Later today — 1:00pm ET to be exact — Fed Chair Janet Yellen will discuss the possibility of an interest rate hike when she addresses the Executives Club in Chicago. Vice Chair Stanley Fischer also speaks today, in New York, and ought to shine even more light on a possible rate hike when the next FOMC meeting happens less than two weeks from today.

Analysts have quickly ratcheted up the probability of a 25-basis-point raise to the 75-100 basis-point range. If enacted, it would be the third hike in the past 15 months, and roughly on-pace for three rate hikes for 2017 overall. Not long ago, these same analysts saw less than an 8% chance Yellen and the Fed Presidents would raise on March 15, but those odds have now ballooned to better than a 3/4 chance the body will do so.

Speculation broke big to the upside following President Trump’s infrastructure- and tax-reform-friendly speech to Congress Tuesday night, sending the markets roaring up during regular trading Wednesday. However, more problematic events even more recently, including the recusal of Attorney General Jeff Sessions from an investigation into the relationship between Trump associates and Russian officials have managed to cool market jets, and a portion of Wednesday gains were walked back yesterday.

Pre-market futures are mixed this morning, including a strong +3.5% ahead of the bell from Snap Inc. (SNAP), the parent company of Snapchat. The social media staple gained an impressive 44% in its debut trading day Thursday, even with headwinds in the major indexes. If Snap can keep this momentum alive, it might become the unanimously lauded success story that is Facebook — +259% from its IPO a little less than 5 years ago. If it can’t, investors hope it won’t suffer the fate thus far Groupon (GRPN - Free Report) has — -78% since its 2011 IPO.

Just this morning, it was reported Comcast’s (CMCSA - Free Report) NBC Universal invested $500 million in SNAP shares yesterday at its $17 opening price. NBC Universal is reportedly the only major U.S. media company involved with Snap to this extent. This points to a close relationship between the two companies moving forward.

Mark Vickery
Senior Editor

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