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Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX) Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (CLDX - Free Report) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2016 results on Mar 4 after market close. Celldex’s performance has been encouraging with a three-quarter average positive surprise of 5.12%.

In the last reported quarter, the company recorded a positive surprise of 9.38%.

Celldex Therapeutics’ shares are up 3.1% so far this year. This compares unfavorably with a 10.4% increase registered by the Zacks classified Biomed/Genetics industry during this period.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

Celldex, a development-stage biopharmaceutical company, is focused on the development and commercialization of immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer and other difficult-to-treat diseases.

With no approved product in its portfolio, investor focus will remain on pipeline development at the company.

The company’s most advanced pipeline candidate is glembatumumab vedotin, currently being evaluated for the treatment of triple negative breast cancer (phase IIb) and metastatic melanoma (phase II). It is also being evaluated for the treatment of other cancers (squamous cell lung cancer, uveal melanoma and pediatric osteosarcoma) in which glycoprotein NMB is expressed.

Apart from glembatumumab vedotin, Celldex has several promising candidates in its pipeline, including varlilumab (several phase I/II combination studies across multiple types of cancer) and CDX-1401 (phase II – multiple solid tumors) among others.

Celldex earns revenues entirely from product development and licensing agreements, and contracts and grants. The company recognizes revenues under its clinical trial collaboration with Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY - Free Report) for varlilumab. We believe the company will continue to record revenues from these sources in the fourth quarter of 2016 as well.

In Nov 2016, the company acquired Kolltan Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a privately held, clinical-stage company. Following the acquisition, Celldex gained rights to two of Kolltan’s pipeline candidates – CDX-0158 and CDX-3379. Celldex also acquired Kolltan’s multi-faceted TAM program. We expect the company to shed light on the integration efforts for this acquisition at the conference call.

Operating expenses vary on a quarterly basis.

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Celldex is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat estimates. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate (loss of 37 cents) and the Zacks Consensus Estimate (loss of 34 cents), is -8.82%.. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with ourEarnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Celldex’s Zacks Rank #2 when combined with a negative ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revision.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarter.

Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +50.0% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.13% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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