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Magellan Midstream (MMP) Down 2.8% Since Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. . Shares have lost about 2.8% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Fourth-Quarter 2016 Results

Magellan Midstream delivered earnings per unit (EPU) - excluding mark-to-market commodity-related pricing adjustments - of $1.04. The bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.94 and also improved from the year-ago earnings of $0.86 per unit. The outperformance came on the back of higher contributions from Magellan's core fee-based transportation and terminal activities.

Total revenue of $615 million increased 7.3% year over year. The top line also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $586 million.       

Distributable Cash Flow

Magellan Midstream's distributable cash flow for the fourth quarter was $277.2 million, up 7.9% from the year-ago quarter.  

Segmental Performance

Refined Products: Quarterly operating profits were approximately $191.1 million, down almost 6.6% from the year-ago quarter. The decline stemmed from ineffective hedging of the partnership's commodity-related activities.

Crude Oil: Operating margin was approximately $111.7 million, up 14.8% from the prior-year quarter.

Marine Storage: Operating margin was $35.1 million, up 16.8% from the year-ago quarter. Higher average rates from contract renewals and escalations, new storage tanks at the partnership's Corpus Christi, TX facility as well as overall increased customer activity in the current period led to the outperformance.

Guidance

Magellan Midstream continues to project at least 8% annual distribution growth for 2017. Distributable cash flow projection for this year is approximately $1.0 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last one month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

VGM Scores

At this time, Magellan Midstream's stock has an average Growth Score of 'C', however its Momentum is doing a bit better with an 'B'. However, the stock was allocated a grade of 'D' on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'C'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Our style scores indicate that the stock is more suitable for momentum investors than growth investors.

Outlook

The stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stock in the next few months.

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