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Why Is Noble Corp (NE) Down 9.7% Since the Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Noble Corporation (NE - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 9.7% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock’s next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Noble Q4 Loss Narrower than Expected; Revenues Beat - Feb 9, 2017

Leading contract drilling company Noble Corp. reported fourth-quarter 2016 loss of $0.15 per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.23 per share. The quarterly results also compared unfavorably with the year-ago quarter earnings of $0.52 per share.

Total revenue in the quarter declined to $410.2 million from $857.7 million in the comparable quarter last year. The quarterly revenues, however, beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $397.91 million. Contract Drilling Services plunged 52.1% year over year and contributed $400.9 million to the total revenue.

Full-year 2016 loss came in at $0.05 per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.13. Noble posted earnings of $2.59 per share in 2015.

Total revenue for the full year decreased to $2,302.1 million from $3,352.2 million in 2015. Nonetheless, it surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,943.0 million.

Fourth-Quarter Operating Highlights

Net loss from continuing operations was $1,283.2 million, much wider than the net loss of $102.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. Total rig utilization decreased to 62% from the year-earlier level of 83%. The overall average dayrate declined to $238,704 from $367,953 in the year-ago quarter.

The average dayrate for drillships of $474,462 was substantially lower than $672,972 a year ago. Average capacity utilization was 73% compared with 99% in the prior-year period.

The average dayrate for the company's jackups was $124,470 as against $145,283 in the prior-year quarter. Average capacity utilization decreased to 86% from the year-ago level of 82%.

The average dayrate for the company's semi-submersibles was $166,253 compared with $315,459 in the prior-year quarter. Average capacity utilization plummeted to 13% from the year-ago level of 67%.

As of Dec 31, 2016, the company had 52% of available rig operating days committed for 2017, which included 33% floating rig days and 71% jackup rig days. For 2018, an estimated 32% of available rig operating days are committed. This consists of 29% and 36% floating and jackup rig days, respectively.

Backlog

As of Dec 31, 2016, total backlog was approximately $3.3 billion. Of this, about $2.3 billion relates to floating rig fleet and $1 billion pertains to jackup fleet.

Financials

At the end of the reported quarter, the company had a cash balance of $725.7 million and long-term debt of $4,040.2 million, with debt-to-capitalization ratio of 38.4% compared with 33.1% in the preceding quarter.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. There have been four upward revisions for the current quarter compared to one downward revision.

Noble Corporation Price and Consensus

 

Noble Corporation Price and Consensus | Noble Corporation Quote

VGM Scores

At this time, Noble Corp.'s stock has a subpar Growth Score of 'D', however its Momentum is doing a lot better with an 'A'. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of 'B' on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'B'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Our style scores indicate that the stock is more suitable for momentum investors than value investors.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock. The magnitude of these revisions also looks promising. Interestingly, the stock has Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stock in the next few months.


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