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Why Is HubSpot (HUBS) Up 11.2% Since the Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for HubSpot, Inc. (HUBS - Free Report) . Shares have added about 11.2% in that time frame, outperforming the market.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to the stock’s next earnings release, or is it due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Recent Earnings

HubSpot reported adjusted loss (including stock-based compensation) of $0.39 per share in fourth-quarter 2016, which was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.47. However, adjusted loss (excluding stock-based compensation) of $0.13 were wider than the year-ago quarter loss figure of $0.12.

Revenues advanced 44% year over year to $76.4 million. Subscription revenues increased 46% to $72.4 million, while Professional services & other revenues increased 15% to $4 million.

HubSpot ended full-year 2016 with loss of $0.36 much narrower than loss of $0.74 reported in 2015. Further, revenues surged 49% year over year to $271 million.

Quarter Details

Total marketing customers grew 28% from the end of 2015 to 23,226 at the end of 2016. Moreover, average subscription revenue per customer increased to $12,592 from $11,135 reported in the year-ago quarter.

Deferred revenue surged 48% year over year to $96.6 million. While calculated, billings defined as revenue plus the change in deferred revenues increased 40% in the same period to $88.8 million.

International revenue grew 67% year over year, representing 29% of total revenue in the quarter.

Adjusted subscription margin expanded 290 basis points (bps) from the year-ago quarter to 84.2%.

Adjusted operating loss (including stock-based compensation) was $13.8 million as compared with loss of $10.4 million in the year-ago quarter. The wider loss resulted from 24%, 48%, and 49% surge in cost of subscription, research & development and selling, and marketing expenses, respectively.

Guidance

HubSpot forecasts revenues in the range of $78.5–$79.5 million for first-quarter 2017, which reflects sequential improvement.

Non-GAAP operating loss is expected to in the range of $3.5–$2.5 million. Non-GAAP net loss is expected to be in the range of $0.10–$0.08 per share.

For full-year 2017, HubSpot forecasts revenues in the range of $349–$353 million. Non-GAAP operating loss is expected to in the range of $11.5–$7.5 million. Non-GAAP net loss is expected to be in the range of $0.30–$0.22 per share. The company anticipates services margins to improve in 2017.

Management expects normal seasonal headwinds from early hiring, payroll resets and annual compensation adjustment to keep margins under pressure in first-half 2017. However, HubSpot expects margin expansion for the full year of 2017.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. There have been two upward revisions for the current quarter compared to one downward.

HubSpot, Inc. Price and Consensus

 

HubSpot, Inc. Price and Consensus | HubSpot, Inc. Quote

VGM Scores

At this time, HubSpot's stock has a great Growth Score of 'A', though it is lagging a lot on the momentum front with an 'F'. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated also a grade of 'F' on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'D'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

The stock is suitable solely for growth based on our styles scores.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock. The magnitude of these revisions also looks promising. Notably, the stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stock in the next few months.


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