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Why Is Newfield Exploration (NFX) Down 14.6% Since the Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Newfield Exploration Company . Shares have lost about 14.6% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock’s next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Newfield Exploration Beats on Q4 Earnings, Revenues - Feb 21, 2017

Newfield Exploration Co. reported adjusted fourth-quarter 2016 earnings of $0.49 per share that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.38. The bottom line also came above the year-ago quarter profit of $0.30. The growth is attributable to superior performance by the Anadarko Basin.

The company’s total revenue improved from $362 million in the year-ago period to $415 million and also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $401 million.

Operational Performance

During the quarter, total production came in at 13.9 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe), comprising 44% oil, 18% natural gas liquids (NGLs) and 38% natural gas. This was lower than 14.9 MMBoe in the year-ago quarter.

Natural gas volumes totaled 31.5 billion cubic feet. Oil, condensate and NGLs volumes came in at 8.6 million barrels.

Newfield’s fourth-quarter oil and natural gas price realizations averaged $31.27 per barrel of oil equivalent against $33.61 per barrel in the year-ago quarter.

Natural gas prices were $2.37 per thousand cubic feet, oil prices were $48.59 per barrel and NGLs prices were $23.65 per barrel.

Financials

At the end of the quarter, Newfield had cash balance of $555 million. Long-term debt was $2,431 million, which represents a debt-to-capitalization ratio of approximately 72.2%.     

Reserves Replacement

At the end of 2016, oil and gas proved reserves were 513 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe), up 0.8% from 2015. In 2016, the company added 77 MMBoe of proved reserves.
 
Guidance

For 2017, Newfield estimates output of 148.2–151.5 MMBoe/d. The company now expects capital spending of $1 billion, of which 85% is apportioned to the Anadarko Basin. For the first quarter of 2017, the company expects production of 138.5–141.7 MMBoe/d.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. There have been four upward revisions for the current quarter compared to three downward.

VGM Scores

At this time, Newfield Exploration's stock has a nice Growth score of 'B', however its Momentum is doing a bit better with an 'A'. However, the stock was allocated a grade of 'C' on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'A'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Based on our scores, the stock is primarily suitable for momentum investors while also being suitable for those looking for growth and to a lesser degree value.

Outlook

While estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, the magnitude of these revisions has been net zero. Notably, the stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stock in the next few months.

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