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No Healthcare Feather in President's Cap

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Friday, March 24, 2017

So the House failed to put up its new AHA healthcare bill to a vote yesterday when they’d earlier announced they would, prompting President Trump to tell the legislative body to either pass the new healthcare measure or have the American public continue to live with Obamacare. I’m sure them’s fighting words within the beltway, but for investors who are more interested in passing tax cut legislation, this might be a blessing in disguise.

Healthcare reform is always a sticky wicket — it took President Obama and a majority in both the House and the Senate a full year to pass a heavily compromised ACA law, now often disparagingly referred to as Obamacare. President Clinton failed to pass any sort of comprehensive healthcare reform after he made it a major part of his campaign platform 25 years ago. So to presume Republicans in the House would simply wave their hands over a new bill and magically have it pass right away may have been a bit much to ask in the first place.

In order for new healthcare legislation to become law, of course, it would also have to pass the Senate, and with congressional recess coming up soon, this looks less and less likely, at least in the near-term. There are some reports that insist the Senate is interested in moving on from this quagmire and onto more fiscally fruitful pursuits when lawmakers return from Spring Break, such as corporate tax cuts, subsequent corporate repatriation and deregulation.

Yet we’re not seeing the sell-off many market participants had been expecting in the wake of a measure not passing, following other problems the results-driven Trump has been enduring of late, such as two separate court stoppages of his travel ban and an FBI investigation into Russia’s involvement with the Trump campaign during the election. The President could use a big win right about now, and everyone knows it.

Be that as it may, there is plenty humming along for the market these days: Q1 earnings season, scheduled to begin following the end of the calendar quarter a week from now, is expected to bring in 6.5% earnings gains for the S&P 500, following a near 8% quarter from Q4. This is without tax cuts or any other acts of Congress being baked into the cake as of yet, so just imagine how these bottom lines might fatten with a big windfall such as this.

Mark Vickery
Senior Editor

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