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DexCom Gains as CMS Announces Criteria for G5 Mobile CGM

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The markets seem to be happy with South San Francisco, CA-based DexCom, Inc. (DXCM - Free Report) . The company’s stock price rallied 4.8% to close at $82.62 yesterday following its announcement, that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) published an article clarifying the criteria for coverage of its DexCom G5 Mobile CGM (continuous glucose monitoring) system for patients with diabetes and on intensive insulin therapy.

DexCom G5 Mobile is the only FDA approved glucose measurement device for therapeutic decision making. Per management, CMS has mentioned four criteria for patients to be covered by the G5 Mobile therapeutic system. Eligible patients must have either Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes and require daily injections of insulin or the use of a continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion pump. Furthermore, patients should have been using a home blood glucose monitor and performing frequent blood glucose monitoring testing for a long time.

The DexCom G5 Mobile CGM has been significantly boosting the company’s top line over the recent past. Interestingly, the platform has a number of FDA submissions on track that include a reliable touch screen receiver, a new insertion system and corresponding smaller transmitter and an Android platform, which is expected to be launched in the U.S. by mid-2017.

Stock Performance

A glimpse at the share price trend over the past three months reveals a promising scenario. DexCom gained a stellar 35.5%, outshining the Zacks classified Medical Instruments sub-industry’s return of 8.03%. Furthermore, the current return of the stock is well ahead of the S&P 500’s return of 16.4% over the same time frame.

On the flip side, the estimate revision trend looks dismal. For the full year, 12 analysts moved south over the last two months compared to no movement in the opposite direction. As a result, the current year estimates are pegged at a loss of 57 cents per share, 128% wider than a loss of 25 cents estimated two months ago.

Despite the bullish price trend, the disappointing analyst sentiments indicate looming concerns ahead. Notably, DexCom has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Bottom Line

We believe the glucose monitoring market represents significant commercial opportunity for DexCom. Furthermore, the diabetes market is booming at the moment, courtesy of the ageing population, inappropriate dietary habits and increasingly sedentary lifestyles. To substantiate the sentiment, a research report by the Allied Market Research reveals that the global markets for Continuous Glucose Monitoring is expected to reach a worth of $568.5 million by 2020, multiplying at a CAGR of 14.8%, with North America being a key market segment.

However, cut-throat competition in the market for blood glucose monitoring devices is a major headwind. The introduction of products by other companies will also make it challenging for DexCom.

Stocks to Consider

Better-ranked stocks in the broader medical sector include Inogen Inc. (INGN - Free Report) , Avinger, Inc. (AVGR - Free Report) and Fluidigm Corporation . Notably, Inogen sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) while Fluidigm and Avinger carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Inogen has a long-term expected earnings growth rate of 17.50%. Notably, the stock represents an impressive one-year return of 89.4%.

Avinger projects sales growth of 30.63% for the current year. Additionally, the company has projected earnings per share growth rate of 39.53% for the current year.

Fluidigm has a long-term expected earnings growth rate of 25%. The stock posted a positive earnings surprise of 1.6% in the last reported quarter.

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