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Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Down 6.7% Since Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Sunoco Logistics Partners LP . Shares have lost about 6.7% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Fourth-Quarter 2016 Results

Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. came out with robust fourth-quarter 2016 results. Strong performance from the partnership’s ‘Crude Oil’ operating segment led to the outperformance.

Sunoco Logistics reported adjusted profit per unit of $0.29, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.23 and the year-ago quarter loss of $0.21.

In more good news, Sunoco Logistics' quarterly distributable cash flow (DCF) rose 3% year-over-year to $247 million.

Quarterly revenues of $2,917 million were up 27% from fourth-quarter 2015 and also came above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,302 million.

Quarterly Distribution

Last month, Sunoco Logistics raised its quarterly distribution by 2% sequentially and 9% year over year to $0.52 per unit or $2.08 per unit annualized.

Segmental Performance

Crude Oil: Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) for the segment were up 19% to $184 million from the year-earlier level of $154 million. Apart from positive results from crude oil pipelines, the segment was buoyed by higher income from Sunoco Logistics’ crude oil terminals contribution from the Vitol acquisition healthier contributions from joint venture interests. These factors were partly offset by lower margins associated with the partnership’s crude oil acquisition and marketing activities.

Natural Gas Liquids: Adjusted EBITDA for this segment came in at $88 million, a 20% deterioration from the fourth-quarter 2015 level. Lower results related to NGL acquisition and marketing activities contributed to the decrease. To some extent, these factors were offset by higher volumes and fee-based earnings from the Mariner natural gas liquids (NGL) projects.

Refined Products: This segment’s EBITDA was $55 million, a modest 4% increase from the year ago period earnings of $53 million. Improved operating results in Sunoco Logistics’ refined products pipelines led to the upside. In particular, Allegheny Access pipeline saw higher volumes during 2016 fourth quarter.

Costs & Expenses

Costs and expenses totaled $2,715 million against $2,242 million in the prior-year quarter.

Capital Expenditure & Balance Sheet

For the three months ended Dec 31, 2016, Sunoco Logistics’ maintenance capital expenditure and expansion capital expenditure were $23 million and $457 million, respectively.

As of the end of 2016, Sunoco Logistics had $41 million in cash and cash equivalents. The partnership had $7,313 million in total debt (consisting of $1,922 million of borrowing under the partnership's revolving credit facility), representing a debt-to-capitalization ratio of approximately 45.7%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There has been one revision lower for the current quarter. In the past month, the consensus estimate has shifted lower by 16.7% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Sunoco Logistics' stock has a nice Growth Score of 'B', though it is lagging a lot on the momentum front with an 'F'. However, the stock was allocated a grade of 'B' on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stocks has an aggregate VGM Score of 'C'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Zacks' style scores indicate that the company's stock is suitable for value and growth investors.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock. The magnitude of this revision also indicates a downward shift. Notably, the stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stock in the next few months.

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