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Why Is Endo (ENDP) Down 10.6% Since the Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Endo International PLC . Shares have lost about 10.6% in the past month, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Endo's Earnings & Revenues Beat; Guides Low

Endo International’s fourth-quarter 2016 earnings of $1.77 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.63. Reported earnings were also above the year-ago figure of $1.36.

Revenues came in at $1.24 billion in fourth-quarter of 2016, up 15.6% year over year. Revenues were also above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.15 billion.

Quarterly Highlights

The company reports results through three segments – Branded Pharmaceuticals (U.S.), Generic Pharmaceuticals (U.S.) and International Pharmaceuticals.

U.S. Branded Pharmaceuticals sales were down 24% to $289 million, reflecting generic entry for Voltaren Gel in Mar 2016 and divestiture of Stendra. Voltaren Gel sales plunged 70% year over year to approximately $18.6 million. Sales of pain products Lidoderm and Opana ER were down 48% and 11%, respectively. However, Xiaflex sales increased 11% year over year reflecting double-digit demand growth for the product.

U.S. Generic Pharmaceuticals recorded sales of $882 million in the quarter, up 45% from the year-ago period due to the launches of the generic version of Seroquel XR and Zetia. Segment revenues also benefited from the robust performance of sterile injectables. However, generics base business revenues declined approximately 23% owing to continued pricing pressure and increased competition, particularly among Solid Oral Immediate Release (IR) products.

The International Pharmaceuticals division garnered sales of $70 million, down 18% year over year. Paladin revenues decreased 2% to $28 million due to intense competition. Revenues of Litha and Somar in the emerging markets declined 25% from the year-ago period to $38 million. The decrease was mainly due to the decline in Litha revenues which resulted from the divestiture of non-core assets.

2016 Results

Revenues in 2016 came in at $4.0 billion, down 23% from 2015 but beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.9 billion. Earnings per share came in $4.73, up from $4.66 in 2015 and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.58.

2017 Outlook

Endo expects revenues in the range of $3.45 billion to $3.60 billion, lower than the 2016 revenues of $4.0 billion primarily due to the expected revenue decline in its Generics base business and legacy branded pain franchise, as well as the impact of divestitures and product discontinuations. The company expects earnings in the range of $3.45 to $3.75 per share.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There have been six revisions lower for the current quarter. In the past month, the consensus estimate has shifted lower by 20% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Endo's stock has a great Growth Score of 'A', though it is lagging a lot on the momentum front with an 'F'. However, the stock was allocated a grade of 'B' on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'A'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Our style scores indicate that the stock is more suitable for growth investors than value investors.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock. The magnitude of this revision also indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise that the stock has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We are looking for a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

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