We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. To learn more, click here. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Progressive (PGR) to Report Q1 Earnings: Is a Beat in Store?
Read MoreHide Full Article
We expect property and casualty (P&C) insurer Progressive Corp. (PGR - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2017 results on Apr 18, before the market opens.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model shows that Progressive has the right combination of two key ingredients to beat estimates.
Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +2.94%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate of 70 cents is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 68 cents. The positive ESP is a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Progressive carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Please note that stocks with a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a significantly higher chance of beating on earnings. The combination of Progressive’s favorable Zacks Rank and positive Earnings ESP makes us reasonably confident of an earnings beat.
Conversely, the Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.
What is Driving the Better-Than-Expected Earnings?
Progressive’s premiums are expected to have improved in the first quarter. Better premiums and improving investment income are likely have driven the top line higher.
Higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, rise in policy acquisition costs and escalating other underwriting expenses are likely to have increased overall expenses.
Policies in force of Personal and Commercial Lines are likely to have improved. The property business also have gained pace in the quarter. Retention ratio likely have remained solid owing to competitive pricing and a diversified product portfolio.
Share repurchases should have boosted the bottom line.
With respect to earnings trend, the company delivered positive surprises in two of the last four quarters, but with an average negative surprise of 0.95%.
The company’s share price has been fluctuating over the last few days and is currently trading at $39.29. We wait to see how the stock performs post the earnings release.
Progressive Corporation (The) Price and EPS Surprise
Everest Re Group Ltd. , which is set to report first-quarter earnings on Apr 24, has an Earnings ESP of +2.47% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Chubb Limited (CB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.82% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter earnings on Apr 25.
Sell These Stocks.Now.
Just released, today's 220 Zacks Rank #5 Strong Sells demand urgent attention. If any are lurking in your portfolio or Watch List, they should be removed immediately. These are sinister companies because many appear to be sound investments. However, from 1988 through 2016, stocks from our Strong Sell list have actually performed 6X worse than the S&P 500.
Image: Bigstock
Progressive (PGR) to Report Q1 Earnings: Is a Beat in Store?
We expect property and casualty (P&C) insurer Progressive Corp. (PGR - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2017 results on Apr 18, before the market opens.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model shows that Progressive has the right combination of two key ingredients to beat estimates.
Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +2.94%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate of 70 cents is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 68 cents. The positive ESP is a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Progressive carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Please note that stocks with a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a significantly higher chance of beating on earnings. The combination of Progressive’s favorable Zacks Rank and positive Earnings ESP makes us reasonably confident of an earnings beat.
Conversely, the Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.
What is Driving the Better-Than-Expected Earnings?
Progressive’s premiums are expected to have improved in the first quarter. Better premiums and improving investment income are likely have driven the top line higher.
Higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, rise in policy acquisition costs and escalating other underwriting expenses are likely to have increased overall expenses.
Policies in force of Personal and Commercial Lines are likely to have improved. The property business also have gained pace in the quarter. Retention ratio likely have remained solid owing to competitive pricing and a diversified product portfolio.
Share repurchases should have boosted the bottom line.
With respect to earnings trend, the company delivered positive surprises in two of the last four quarters, but with an average negative surprise of 0.95%.
The company’s share price has been fluctuating over the last few days and is currently trading at $39.29. We wait to see how the stock performs post the earnings release.
Progressive Corporation (The) Price and EPS Surprise
Progressive Corporation (The) Price and EPS Surprise | Progressive Corporation (The) Quote
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some P&C insurers that you may want to consider as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
RLI Corp (RLI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.17% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Apr 19. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Everest Re Group Ltd. , which is set to report first-quarter earnings on Apr 24, has an Earnings ESP of +2.47% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Chubb Limited (CB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.82% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter earnings on Apr 25.
Sell These Stocks.Now.
Just released, today's 220 Zacks Rank #5 Strong Sells demand urgent attention. If any are lurking in your portfolio or Watch List, they should be removed immediately. These are sinister companies because many appear to be sound investments. However, from 1988 through 2016, stocks from our Strong Sell list have actually performed 6X worse than the S&P 500.
See today's Zacks "Strong Sells" absolutely free >>