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What's in the Cards for T. Rowe Price (TROW) in Q1 Earnings?

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T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW - Free Report) will report first-quarter 2017 earnings results, before the opening bell on Apr 25.

In fourth-quarter 2016, T.Rowe Price reported a negative earnings surprise of 14.2%. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.21 considerably lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Elevated expenses were primarily responsible for the lower-than-expected results. However, higher assets under management (AUM) were a tailwind.

The company has a decent earnings surprise history as depicted in the chart below:

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Shares of T. Rowe Price gained 8.7% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks categorized Financial - Investment Management industry’s growth of 13.1%.

Earnings Whispers

According to our quantitative model, we cannot conclusively predict an earnings beat for T.Rowe Price in the first quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better for this to happen, which is not the case for T.Rowe Price. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for T.Rowe Price is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at $1.20.

Zacks Rank: T.Rowe Price currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. This increases the predictive power of ESP but we need to have positive ESP to be reasonably confident of an earnings beat.

Factors to Influence Q1 Results

Inflows from Mutual Fund Products: According to Morningstar data, T. Rowe Price witnessed around $1.4 billion of net inflows in U.S. mutual fund products in the first quarter. This improvement is likely to be marked by slow equity outflows along with faster fixed income inflows.
 
Higher AUM:
The company is likely to record a rise in AUM as the first quarter saw a strong performance in the equity markets. Notably, S&P 500 Index gained 4.3% in the quarter, which is likely to benefit T. Rowe Price, given its equity-heavy asset mix.

Insignificant Fee Waivers: Management believes that with the gradually improving interest rate environment, fee waivers in its money market mutual funds and trusts would be insignificant.

Notably, this investment manager’s activities during the quarter were enough to win analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate increased slightly to $1.20, over the last seven days.

Stocks that Warrant a Look

Here are some stocks you may want to consider, as according to our model they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter results on Apr 26. It has an Earnings ESP of +2.38% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.99% and a Zacks Rank #3. It is slated to report first-quarter results on Apr 26.

The Earnings ESP for Moody’s Corporation (MCO - Free Report) is +4.17% and it carries a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 5.

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