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Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) Q1 Earnings: A Beat in the Cards?

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Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR - Free Report) , a designer and manufacturer of aerostructures for both commercial and defense aircraft, is set to release first-quarter 2017 results on May 3, before the opening bell.

In the preceding quarter, the company posted a negative surprise of 12.75%. However, Spirit Aerosystems outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters with average positive surprise of 8.15%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to this announcement.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Spirit AeroSystems is likely to beat earnings this season because it has the right combination of two key ingredients. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to be able to beat estimates, and Spirit AeroSystems has the right mix.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate is +0.86%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate stands at $1.18, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged a little lower at $1.17. This is a meaningful indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Spirit AeroSystems’ Zacks Rank #3, when combined with a positive ESP, makes us reasonably confident of an earnings beat this quarter.

Note that we caution against stocks with Zacks Ranks #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing a negative estimate revision.

Factors at Play

Growing global demand for commercial airplanes is expected to boost sales of large aerostructures and components offered by Spirit AeroSystems. Moreover, the company’s long-term contracts with industry bellwethers like The Boeing Company (BA - Free Report) and Airbus Group SE (EADSY - Free Report) should help boost revenues.

However, recent hike in fuel costs and stronger U.S. dollar are expected to dent growth in the global aviation business, at least in the near term. Considering this, the company might not achieve its first-quarter goals at its fullest, if the higher fuel costs manage to mar its revenue growth.

For the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share reflects a 9.44% year-over-year decline, while sales are anticipated to be down 1.39% to $1.66 billion.

Stocks that Warrant a Look

Here are a few stocks in the Aerospace and Defense space worth considering on the basis of our model which shows that they have the right combination to pull off a beat:

Orbital ATK, Inc. is expected to report first-quarter 2017 results on May 4. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.22% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Engility Holdings, Inc. is scheduled to report first-quarter 2017 results on May 4. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.50% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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