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Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc.  is expected to report first-quarter 2017 on May 9, after market closes. The company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 277.78% in the last quarter. Over the four trailing quarters, it had an average positive surprise of 79.09%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this quarter.

Year to date Arena’s shares have lost 6.4% compared with 5.2% increase for the Zacks classified Medical-Biomed/Genetics industry.



Factors at Play

The only approved product in Arena’s portfolio is obesity treatment drug, Belviq, which has delivered an unimpressive performance so far. We note that ramping up sales in the U.S. anti-obesity market is challenging due to several factors, including the tendency of health care providers to treat the symptoms of obesity instead of the disease itself, lesser focus on certain patient types for the treatment and historically low third-party insurance coverage. In Oct 2016, the company launched the once-daily formulation of Belviq (Belviq XR), which should garner some revenues this quarter.

Please note that in Jan 2017 the company announced that it has amended the marketing and supply agreement with Eisai Co., Ltd. for Belviq. Eisai will gain global commercialization rights to Belviq, including the territories retained by Arena under the companies’ previous agreement, with control over development and commercialization decisions globally. It will also take care of all expenses related to the development of Belviq. Going forward, Arena will be entitled to receive royalty payments on sales of Belviq from Eisai.

Other collaborations include deals with Ildong for South Korea, CY Biotech for Taiwan and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA - Free Report) for Israel.

During the upcoming release, investors are expected to focus on the company’s progress with its pipeline and the impact of its streamlining efforts. Interesting candidates in Arena’s pipeline include etrasimod (phase II – ulcerative colitis) and ralinepag (phase II – pulmonary arterial hypertension).

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Arena is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Arena is 0.00% as both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of 8 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Arena has a Zacks Rank #5 (Sell). Note that we caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some health care stocks that you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

FIBROGEN INC (FGEN - Free Report) is scheduled to release results on May 9. The company has an Earnings ESP of +23.81% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Editas Medicine, Inc. (EDIT - Free Report) is expected to release results on May 15. The company has an Earnings ESP of +32.26% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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