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In the Global Week Ahead, President Trump will jet off on a 9-day foreign trip. His inaugural diplomatic trip on Air Force One begins on Thursday.
This first presidential trip abroad features stops in Saudi Arabia, Israel, Italy and Belgium -- and Mr. Trump’s first appearances at both NATO and G7 summits of major powers.
This is the high-level political world. And it is no longer spinning around a U.S. axis, and probably hasn’t for some time. That will become even more apparent as this first U.S. Presidential trip unfolds.
In addition, it turns out that, in the week ahead, many world leaders outside the U.S. are gaining strength.
Enjoying strong election results, Germany and France are staying in the centrist camp. Their leaders hold their first formal meeting on Monday.
Japan’s Prime Minister is about to enjoy 5 straight quarter of uninterrupted GDP growth, the first run of that in 11 years.
And Iran’s moderate President is up for re-election on Friday.
Let’s step thru the non-U.S. scenario unfolding—
On Monday, Germany’s leader Angela Merkel hosts the new French President Emmanuel Macron for their first meeting after his inauguration.
Bloomberg wrote that Merkel is “clawing back when it counts.” Her party’s election victory in Germany’s most populous state on Sunday highlights her pull among voters.
Merkel vows to hold the European Union together, defend free trade, and rebuff Trump’s pressure to accelerate defense spending.
After 12 years in office, this election victory confirms Merkel’s standing -- before she heads to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Group of Seven (G7) summits in Brussels and Sicily next week.
On Thursday in Asia, it should appear that Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s economic policies are working. Analysts look to Japan’s Q1-17 GDP numbers for confirmation of strong economic expansion.
Market consensus pegs annualized Japanese GDP growth at +1.8% -- roughly a percentage point above its long-run trend, according to Bloomberg.
Another positive quarterly Japanese GDP figure would mark five consecutive quarters of growth -- the first time in 11 years.
On Friday, Iran’s moderate president Hassan Rouhani seeks a second term. He is the leader who struck the historic deal to remove nuclear sanctions.
To close out a prepatory week in diplomacy, on Saturday, 21 Asia-Pacific trade ministers meet in Hanoi, Vietnam. They look to launch freer trade in that region.
This has long been the case. Since World War II, U.S. economic partners, established treaties and long-term military alliance structures are the pillars. They project and maintain stable power relationships across the globe.
Fewer global political risks lower the thresholds to higher global GDP growth – enjoyed by all the political players in the system.
Let’s see.
Can this first jet-set trip abroad help to regain that enduring, seven-decade-old perspective --for a new and inexperienced U.S. President — after it is over?
Fresh Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks—
(1) Unilever (using tickers and (UL - Free Report) : Think about Europe, where share valuations are lower. This monster $92 billion market cap Consumer Staples stock also carries a long-term Zacks VGM score of B.
???(2) Syngenta AG (SYT - Free Report) : This is a large Swiss agrochemical and seeds company, with $42 billion in market capitalization. Here’s the big news: the Chinese seek to increase agricultural sector productivity by buying this company.
In recent weeks, ChemChina announced results for their tender offer to purchase all publicly held registered shares of Syngenta and all outstanding American Depositary Shares (ADRs).
On May 4th, around 82.2% of Common Shares have been validly tendered. The Minimum Acceptance Rate condition of 67% of issued Syngenta shares has been satisfied. In short, the Chinese tender offer has been successful.??????
(3) Shin-Etsu Chemical (SHECY - Free Report) : This stock is all about global semiconductor suppliers staying HOT. This Japanese firm is engaged in the production and distribution of polyvinyl chloride and silicon wafers.
The company's products include of polyvinyl chloride, silicones, rare earths, rare earth magnets, epoxy molding compounds, synthetic Quartz, semiconductor silicon and cellulose derivatives.
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Key Global Macro—
On Monday, traders got Mainland China’s retail sales and industrial production prints. These were typically blasé. However, beware a property bubble. In March 62 of 70 Chinese cities registered increases on prices for new apartments.
On Thursday, traders get three central bank decisions. The central bank of Mexico (Banxico) and Banco Central de Chile issue monetary policy decisions. Consensus expects both Mexico and Chile to stay pat. The central bank of Indonesia is also likely to stand pat at 4.75%.
I see a number of U.K. data releases this week. Their June 8th election is coming into view. U.K. macro catalysts should remain comparatively meek.
On Monday, Mainland China’s retail sales came in at +10.7% y/y, versus a +10.90% prior rate. It’s still strong. Industrial production there is growing +6.7% a year too.
The unemployment rate in Turkey is 12.6%.
Greece came up with -0.3% y/y GDP growth. That’s a bare cupboard.
Brazil looks to be come up with +0.1% y/y GDP growth. That’s spare too.
The U.S. NAHB builders survey comes out. The prior reading was 68.
On Tuesday, the final consumer inflation numbers for France, the HICP, come out. The preliminary number was +1.4% y/y.
For comparison, the CPI in the United Kingdom is forecast to be +2.8% y/y. That is double the French rate. I have to imagine the collapse in the U.K. pound is playing a key role.
Preliminary GDP growth in the Eurozone should be +1.7% y/y. This should be a key trading number this week.
The ZEW indexes for Germany come out. Current conditions should go from 80.1 to 80.4; while economic sentiment should go to 21.3 from 19.5; and economic sentiment from 26.3 to 28.4. In short, conditions are heating up there.
On Wednesday, the wage price index for Australia comes out. It is tracking +1.9% y/y.
The unemployment rate in the U.K. is 4.7%.
On Thursday, the Bank of Indonesia’s reverse repo rate (their policy interest rate) should stay firm at 4.75%.
The unemployment rate in Australia is 5.9%.
The U.K.’s retail sales (ex-auto and fuel) should be 2.3% y/y.
U.S. initial claims should be strong at 236K.
Mexico’s overnight rate (their policy interest rate) should be firm at 6.5%.
On Friday, Canada’s retail sales look flat at -0.1% m/m, while the CPI is flat at +1.6% y/y.
The Fed’s Bullard speaks in St. Louis.
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On a Jet Plane: Global Week Ahead
In the Global Week Ahead, President Trump will jet off on a 9-day foreign trip. His inaugural diplomatic trip on Air Force One begins on Thursday.
This first presidential trip abroad features stops in Saudi Arabia, Israel, Italy and Belgium -- and Mr. Trump’s first appearances at both NATO and G7 summits of major powers.
This is the high-level political world. And it is no longer spinning around a U.S. axis, and probably hasn’t for some time. That will become even more apparent as this first U.S. Presidential trip unfolds.
In addition, it turns out that, in the week ahead, many world leaders outside the U.S. are gaining strength.
Let’s step thru the non-U.S. scenario unfolding—
On Monday, Germany’s leader Angela Merkel hosts the new French President Emmanuel Macron for their first meeting after his inauguration.
Bloomberg wrote that Merkel is “clawing back when it counts.” Her party’s election victory in Germany’s most populous state on Sunday highlights her pull among voters.
Merkel vows to hold the European Union together, defend free trade, and rebuff Trump’s pressure to accelerate defense spending.
After 12 years in office, this election victory confirms Merkel’s standing -- before she heads to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Group of Seven (G7) summits in Brussels and Sicily next week.
On Thursday in Asia, it should appear that Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s economic policies are working. Analysts look to Japan’s Q1-17 GDP numbers for confirmation of strong economic expansion.
Market consensus pegs annualized Japanese GDP growth at +1.8% -- roughly a percentage point above its long-run trend, according to Bloomberg.
Another positive quarterly Japanese GDP figure would mark five consecutive quarters of growth -- the first time in 11 years.
On Friday, Iran’s moderate president Hassan Rouhani seeks a second term. He is the leader who struck the historic deal to remove nuclear sanctions.
To close out a prepatory week in diplomacy, on Saturday, 21 Asia-Pacific trade ministers meet in Hanoi, Vietnam. They look to launch freer trade in that region.
This has long been the case. Since World War II, U.S. economic partners, established treaties and long-term military alliance structures are the pillars. They project and maintain stable power relationships across the globe.
Fewer global political risks lower the thresholds to higher global GDP growth – enjoyed by all the political players in the system.
Let’s see.
Can this first jet-set trip abroad help to regain that enduring, seven-decade-old perspective --for a new and inexperienced U.S. President — after it is over?
Fresh Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks—
(1) Unilever (using tickers and (UL - Free Report) : Think about Europe, where share valuations are lower. This monster $92 billion market cap Consumer Staples stock also carries a long-term Zacks VGM score of B.
???(2) Syngenta AG (SYT - Free Report) : This is a large Swiss agrochemical and seeds company, with $42 billion in market capitalization. Here’s the big news: the Chinese seek to increase agricultural sector productivity by buying this company.
In recent weeks, ChemChina announced results for their tender offer to purchase all publicly held registered shares of Syngenta and all outstanding American Depositary Shares (ADRs).
On May 4th, around 82.2% of Common Shares have been validly tendered. The Minimum Acceptance Rate condition of 67% of issued Syngenta shares has been satisfied. In short, the Chinese tender offer has been successful.??????
(3) Shin-Etsu Chemical (SHECY - Free Report) : This stock is all about global semiconductor suppliers staying HOT. This Japanese firm is engaged in the production and distribution of polyvinyl chloride and silicon wafers.
The company's products include of polyvinyl chloride, silicones, rare earths, rare earth magnets, epoxy molding compounds, synthetic Quartz, semiconductor silicon and cellulose derivatives.
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Key Global Macro—
On Monday, traders got Mainland China’s retail sales and industrial production prints. These were typically blasé. However, beware a property bubble. In March 62 of 70 Chinese cities registered increases on prices for new apartments.
On Thursday, traders get three central bank decisions. The central bank of Mexico (Banxico) and Banco Central de Chile issue monetary policy decisions. Consensus expects both Mexico and Chile to stay pat. The central bank of Indonesia is also likely to stand pat at 4.75%.
I see a number of U.K. data releases this week. Their June 8th election is coming into view. U.K. macro catalysts should remain comparatively meek.
On Monday, Mainland China’s retail sales came in at +10.7% y/y, versus a +10.90% prior rate. It’s still strong. Industrial production there is growing +6.7% a year too.
The unemployment rate in Turkey is 12.6%.
Greece came up with -0.3% y/y GDP growth. That’s a bare cupboard.
Brazil looks to be come up with +0.1% y/y GDP growth. That’s spare too.
The U.S. NAHB builders survey comes out. The prior reading was 68.
On Tuesday, the final consumer inflation numbers for France, the HICP, come out. The preliminary number was +1.4% y/y.
For comparison, the CPI in the United Kingdom is forecast to be +2.8% y/y. That is double the French rate. I have to imagine the collapse in the U.K. pound is playing a key role.
Preliminary GDP growth in the Eurozone should be +1.7% y/y. This should be a key trading number this week.
The ZEW indexes for Germany come out. Current conditions should go from 80.1 to 80.4; while economic sentiment should go to 21.3 from 19.5; and economic sentiment from 26.3 to 28.4. In short, conditions are heating up there.
On Wednesday, the wage price index for Australia comes out. It is tracking +1.9% y/y.
The unemployment rate in the U.K. is 4.7%.
On Thursday, the Bank of Indonesia’s reverse repo rate (their policy interest rate) should stay firm at 4.75%.
The unemployment rate in Australia is 5.9%.
The U.K.’s retail sales (ex-auto and fuel) should be 2.3% y/y.
U.S. initial claims should be strong at 236K.
Mexico’s overnight rate (their policy interest rate) should be firm at 6.5%.
On Friday, Canada’s retail sales look flat at -0.1% m/m, while the CPI is flat at +1.6% y/y.
The Fed’s Bullard speaks in St. Louis.