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What to Expect from Cracker Barrel (CBRL) in Q3 Earnings?

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Restaurant chain Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2017 numbers on May 23, before the opening bell.

Last quarter, Cracker Barrel posted a positive earnings surprise of 2.34%. In fact, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 3.41%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors Likely to Affect Q3 Results

Cracker Barrel’s distinctiveness in the retail-restaurant sector lies in the fact that apart from serving food, its restaurant establishments have old-country feel along with unique gift shops.

The fiscal second quarter marked the company’s 11th consecutive quarter of positive comparable restaurant sales and the 21st consecutive quarter of outperforming the casual dining industry. We expect the company’s focus on improving guest experience, menu innovation, promotional offerings, excellent operations execution and extensive marketing efforts to have continued the trend of this outperformance in the to-be-reported quarter as well.

Notably, the company expects earnings per share in the fiscal third quarter to be in the range of $1.75 to $1.85. Management also anticipates Cracker Barrel’s cost saving initiatives, commodity costs favorability and the growth of its off-premise business to further drive the quarter’s results.

Nevertheless, management notes that the company’s retail business is presently under pressure. In fact, the fiscal second quarter proved to be a very challenging period both for Cracker Barrel and the retail industry, as a whole. Although Cracker Barrel has grown its offerings to target a younger demographic and is focusing on new product assortments, management believes that the fiscal third quarter comparable retail sales are likely to witness a decline, despite sequential improvement.

Moreover, a soft consumer spending environment in the U.S. restaurant space might continue to affect traffic, thereby putting the quarter’s comps under pressure.  

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show earnings beat for Cracker Barrel this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as elaborated below.

Zacks ESP: Cracker Barrel has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $1.84. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Cracker Barrel has a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies to consider as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Fred’s, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +16.67% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Big Lots, Inc. (BIG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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