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Why Is Ubiquiti (UBNT) Down 3.2% Since the Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. . Shares have lost about 3.2% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Ubiquiti Beats on Q3 Earnings & Revenues, Grows Y/Y

After a rare miss in the last reported quarter, Ubiquiti returned to its earnings streak with a beat in the recently reported third-quarter fiscal 2017. The company reported earnings per share of $0.77, which trumped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.68 by 13.2%.

On a non-GAAP basis, the company’s earnings per share were $0.78, reflecting 23.8% growth year over year. Ubiquiti’s overarching business model and impressive top-line growth drove the stellar performance during the quarter.

Inside the Headlines

Total revenue of $218.3 million steered past the company’s projected range of $210–$220 million. Also, it grew 30.4% on a year-over-year basis and topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $211 million comfortably. Solid demand of all product lines across each end market proved conducive to top-line growth. This is also the first time in the company’s history when Enterprise Technology revenues surpassed the Service Provider revenues.

The company’s Enterprise Technology segment continued to fare remarkably well, with revenues soaring a whopping 59.6% year over year to $113.6 million. The striking growth was fueled by the entire UniFi product family. Disruptive pricing and higher average selling prices of recently launched products proved conducive to growth. Also, high demand for switches, security gateways, cameras and other complementary products in the international market also helped drive top-line growth.

Even the Service Provider Technology segment achieved growth of 8.8% year over year, generating $104.7 million. Higher sales of new offerings to the Ubiquiti community of service providers drove sales growth of this segment.

On a geographic basis, North America charted strongest growth, as revenues surged 78.6% compared to the prior-year quarter figure. South American sales rose an impressive 80.5% year over year. In addition, the Europe, Middle East and Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions witnessed 19.8% and 15.8% growth, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.

Gross margin for the quarter shrunk 390 basis points year over year to 45.4%, largely on account of unfavorable product mix.

Product Launches

During the reported quarter, Ubiquiti commenced the shipment of UniFi AC HD access points. This brings the industry's highest performance 802.11ac Wave 2 technology to the consumers at a disruptive price of $349. Also, it began the distribution of AmpliFi products in the consumer retail channel. Going forward, the company has plans to roll out hundreds of stores in the U.S., starting from the fiscal fourth quarter.

Further, Ubiquiti introduced UniFi AC In-Wall access point, which can convert an Ethernet wall connection into a dual-band 802.11ac Wi-Fi access point. The company believes that this will have applications across a gamut of products ranging from healthcare to education. Moreover, in a bid to bolster its stronghold in dense urban environments, Ubiquiti launched airMAX AC GEN2.

Moreover, the company made significant updates to the UniFi Mobile App which will eventually help service-provider customers to install airMAX devices.

Liquidity & Share Repurchases

Ubiquiti ended the fiscal third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $533.9 million compared with $612.7 million as of December 31, 2016. At the end of Mar 31, 2017, the company’s long-term debt was $210.5 million, up from $191.6 million recorded at the end of Dec 31, 2016.

Also, during the fiscal third quarter, the company repurchased 1,932,411 shares for $96.3 million at an average price of $49.82 per share.

Guidance

Incorporating the solid performance in the reported quarter, favorable business trends and sturdy demand environment, the company released optimistic guidance for fourth-quarter fiscal 2017.

Management projects revenues in the range of $215–$225 million. Non-GAAP earnings are expected within $0.70–$0.75 per share, while GAAP earnings per share are anticipated in the band of $0.69–$0.74.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

 

Analysts were quiet during the last one month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. Price and Consensus

 

VGM Scores

At this time, the stock has a poor Growth Score of 'F', a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of 'C' on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'F'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

The company's stock is suitable solely for value based on our styles scores.

Outlook

The stock has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We are expecting an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

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