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Geron (GERN) Up 3.1% Since Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Geron Corporation (GERN - Free Report) . Shares have added about 3.1% in theat time frame, outperforming the market.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Geron Q1 Loss in Line, Focus Remains on Imetelstat

Geron Corporation reported a loss of $0.05 per share in the first quarter of 2017, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. In the year-ago quarter, the company had recorded a loss of $0.06 per share.

Quarterly revenues came in at $0.53 million compared with $0.75 million in the year-ago quarter. Revenues slightly beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.34 million. Revenues comprised royalty and license fee revenues received under various non-imetelstat license agreements.

Research and development (R&D) expenses plunged 32% to $3.4 million due to high start-up costs incurred in the first quarter of 2016 related to the initiation of IMerge study. General and administrative expenses declined 2% to $4.7 million due to reduced consulting costs.

The company ended the quarter with $121.7 million in cash and investments.

Pipeline Update

Geron is developing anti-cancer therapies based on telomerase inhibitors. The company currently has one candidate in its pipeline, imetelstat. It is being developed for the treatment of hematologic myeloid malignancies like myelofibrosis (MF) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Geron has a collaboration with Johnson & Johnson’s subsidiary Janssen for imetelstat.

In Sep 2016, Janssen announced unfavorable findings from the planned internal reviews of initial data from the two studies of imetelstat – IMbark (phase II) for the treatment of MF and IMerge (phase II/III) for the treatment of MDS.

However, in March this year, Geron informed that the treatment of patients remaining on study in IMbark and IMerge is on in order to obtain additional and more mature data.

In April, Geron informed that Janssen has completed the second internal data review of the two studies to inform on further development plans. As a result of the second internal review, both trials are continuing unmodified. For IMerge, Janssen said that the benefit/risk profile of imetelstat in the treated patients supports continued development in lower risk MDS indication. Geron mentioned that if Janssen decides to proceed to Part 2 of IMerge (a larger, 170 patient, phase III study), patient enrollment will begin in the fourth quarter of this year.

For IMbark, the results suggested that the clinical benefit and a potential overall survival benefit observed supports continuation of the trial without modifications.

Janssen is expected to evaluate maturing data from the IMbark study during next year, including an assessment of overall survival.

Meanwhile, Geron is working on expanding its pipeline and is simultaneously working to add oncology candidates, programs or companies to its portfolio.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last two month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

Geron Corporation Price and Consensus

 

Geron Corporation Price and Consensus | Geron Corporation Quote

VGM Scores

At this time, Geron's stock has a poor Growth Score of 'F', however its Momentum is doing a lot better with a 'C'. However, the stock was allocated a grade of 'F' on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'F'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

The company's stock is suitable solely for momentum based on our styles scores.

Outlook

The stock has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We are expecting an above average return from the stock in the next few months


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