For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL –August 14, 2017 – Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week’s list includes Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT – Free Report), Target (NYSE:TGT – Free Report), Home Depot (NYSE:HD – Free Report) and Macy’s (NYSE:M – Free Report).
To see more earnings analysis, visit https://at.zacks.com/?id=3207.
Every day, Zacks.com makes their Bull Stock of the Day available, free of charge. To see it, click here.
Department Stores Disappoint Again
The one-year stock price of Macy’s (NYSE:M – Free Report) and the department store industry chart vividly tells the story; these are tough times for the space. Macy’s shares have lost -48.2% of their value over the past 12 months, underperforming the Zacks Department Store industry’s -36.2% decline.
Amazon is working on a number of fronts, but it has been a big contributor to the department store space’s ongoing pain. The issues are well known by now -- these operators needed literally to reinvent their businesses to effectively operate in an environment where consumers are steadily shifting their spending dollars to the online medium instead of visiting the physical store.
As of Friday, August 11th, we now have Q2 results from 23 of the 42 retailers in the S&P 500 index. This week brings results from the big-box operators Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT – Free Report), Target (NYSE:TGT – Free Report), Home Depot (NYSE:HD – Free Report) and others. Total earnings for the 23 retailers that have reported already are down -1.7% from the same period last year on +6.7% higher revenues, with 73.9% beating EPS estimates and 78.3% beating revenue estimates.
Please note that we have a stand-alone Retail sector, unlike the official Standard & Poor’s placement of this space in the Consumer Discretionary sector. The Zacks Retail sector includes, besides the traditional department stores and other brick-and-mortar retailers, the online vendors like Amazon and Priceline and restaurant operators. Results from the online vendors and most of the restaurant operators are already behind us at this stage.
The aggregate growth pace from the 23 retailers that have reported results already are tracking below what we had seen from the same companies in other recent periods. Positive surprises are as numerous in this sector as they have been all along in other sectors this earnings season. We will get Retail’s complete picture following this week’s results from Wal-Mart, Target, Home Depot and others.
Q2 Earnings Season Scorecard (as of Friday, August 11, 2017)
The Q2 earnings season has come to an end for 10 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with results from 456 S&P 500 members or 91.2% of the index’s total membership already out. Total earnings for these companies are up +10.8% from the same period last year on +5.8% higher revenues, with 74.3% beating EPS estimates and 68% beating revenue estimates.
As pointed out earlier, the proportion of companies beating revenue estimates is tracking above historical periods (right-hand chart). The earnings and revenue growth pace for these 456 companies is below what we had seen from the same sample of companies in Q1, but an improvement over other recent periods.
Here are the four takeaways from the results that have come out already.
First, the earnings and revenue growth pace has steadily gone up relative to pre-season expectations. Total Q2 earnings for the index are currently expected to be up +10.1% from the same period last year on +5.3% higher revenues.
Please note that the +10.1% growth rate is the blended growth rate; it combines the actual growth for the 456 S&P 500 members that have reported with estimates for the still-to-come 44 index members. At the start of the quarter, the expectation was for earnings growth of +7.9%, which came down as the quarter unfolded, reaching as low as +5.6% just ahead of the start of the reporting season.
The deceleration in Q2 earnings growth notwithstanding, the quarter’s earnings tally is on track to reach a new all-time quarterly record, surpassing the 2016 Q4 level, as you can see in the chart below.
This record isn’t expected to last very long, with each of the coming quarters expected to bring in ever bigger earnings tallies.
Second, an above-average proportion of companies are beating estimates, particularly revenue estimates. We typically don’t give this factor a lot of weight in evaluating or assessing an earnings season since we all know that management teams are experts in managing expectations. Even then, the trend emerging in the Q2 earnings season is noteworthy for two reasons. First, estimates for the quarter had not fallen by as much as had historically been the case. Second, the proportion of positive revenue surprises, a much harder variable to manipulate relative to earnings, is really off the chart.
Third, Q2 growth is broad-based and not dependent on one or two sectors. There is strong growth contribution from the Finance, Technology and Energy sectors in Q2, but we have 13 of the 16 Zacks sectors on track to produce more earnings than the year-earlier period.
Fourth, estimates for the September quarter have started coming down, but the pace and magnitude of negative revisions compares favorably to other comparable periods. Total Q3 earnings are currently expected to be up +3.9% from the same period last year, down from +6.3% at the start of July.
This is a reassuring start on the revisions front, but we will have to see if this trend will remain in place through the rest of this earnings season.
About Zacks
Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978. The later formation of the Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock picking system; continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time!Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros.
Get the full Report on M – FREE
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Media Contact
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Zacks.com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources, which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions. Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks "Terms and Conditions of Service" disclaimer. www.zacks.com/disclaimer.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
Image: Bigstock
Wal-Mart, Target, Home Depot and Macy's are part of Zacks Earnings Preview
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL –August 14, 2017 – Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week’s list includes Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT – Free Report), Target (NYSE:TGT – Free Report), Home Depot (NYSE:HD – Free Report) and Macy’s (NYSE:M – Free Report).
To see more earnings analysis, visit https://at.zacks.com/?id=3207.
Every day, Zacks.com makes their Bull Stock of the Day available, free of charge. To see it, click here.
Department Stores Disappoint Again
The one-year stock price of Macy’s (NYSE:M – Free Report) and the department store industry chart vividly tells the story; these are tough times for the space. Macy’s shares have lost -48.2% of their value over the past 12 months, underperforming the Zacks Department Store industry’s -36.2% decline.
Amazon is working on a number of fronts, but it has been a big contributor to the department store space’s ongoing pain. The issues are well known by now -- these operators needed literally to reinvent their businesses to effectively operate in an environment where consumers are steadily shifting their spending dollars to the online medium instead of visiting the physical store.
As of Friday, August 11th, we now have Q2 results from 23 of the 42 retailers in the S&P 500 index. This week brings results from the big-box operators Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT – Free Report), Target (NYSE:TGT – Free Report), Home Depot (NYSE:HD – Free Report) and others. Total earnings for the 23 retailers that have reported already are down -1.7% from the same period last year on +6.7% higher revenues, with 73.9% beating EPS estimates and 78.3% beating revenue estimates.
Please note that we have a stand-alone Retail sector, unlike the official Standard & Poor’s placement of this space in the Consumer Discretionary sector. The Zacks Retail sector includes, besides the traditional department stores and other brick-and-mortar retailers, the online vendors like Amazon and Priceline and restaurant operators. Results from the online vendors and most of the restaurant operators are already behind us at this stage.
The aggregate growth pace from the 23 retailers that have reported results already are tracking below what we had seen from the same companies in other recent periods. Positive surprises are as numerous in this sector as they have been all along in other sectors this earnings season. We will get Retail’s complete picture following this week’s results from Wal-Mart, Target, Home Depot and others.
Q2 Earnings Season Scorecard (as of Friday, August 11, 2017)
The Q2 earnings season has come to an end for 10 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with results from 456 S&P 500 members or 91.2% of the index’s total membership already out. Total earnings for these companies are up +10.8% from the same period last year on +5.8% higher revenues, with 74.3% beating EPS estimates and 68% beating revenue estimates.
As pointed out earlier, the proportion of companies beating revenue estimates is tracking above historical periods (right-hand chart). The earnings and revenue growth pace for these 456 companies is below what we had seen from the same sample of companies in Q1, but an improvement over other recent periods.
Here are the four takeaways from the results that have come out already.
First, the earnings and revenue growth pace has steadily gone up relative to pre-season expectations. Total Q2 earnings for the index are currently expected to be up +10.1% from the same period last year on +5.3% higher revenues.
Please note that the +10.1% growth rate is the blended growth rate; it combines the actual growth for the 456 S&P 500 members that have reported with estimates for the still-to-come 44 index members. At the start of the quarter, the expectation was for earnings growth of +7.9%, which came down as the quarter unfolded, reaching as low as +5.6% just ahead of the start of the reporting season.
The deceleration in Q2 earnings growth notwithstanding, the quarter’s earnings tally is on track to reach a new all-time quarterly record, surpassing the 2016 Q4 level, as you can see in the chart below.
This record isn’t expected to last very long, with each of the coming quarters expected to bring in ever bigger earnings tallies.
Second, an above-average proportion of companies are beating estimates, particularly revenue estimates. We typically don’t give this factor a lot of weight in evaluating or assessing an earnings season since we all know that management teams are experts in managing expectations. Even then, the trend emerging in the Q2 earnings season is noteworthy for two reasons. First, estimates for the quarter had not fallen by as much as had historically been the case. Second, the proportion of positive revenue surprises, a much harder variable to manipulate relative to earnings, is really off the chart.
Third, Q2 growth is broad-based and not dependent on one or two sectors. There is strong growth contribution from the Finance, Technology and Energy sectors in Q2, but we have 13 of the 16 Zacks sectors on track to produce more earnings than the year-earlier period.
Fourth, estimates for the September quarter have started coming down, but the pace and magnitude of negative revisions compares favorably to other comparable periods. Total Q3 earnings are currently expected to be up +3.9% from the same period last year, down from +6.3% at the start of July.
This is a reassuring start on the revisions front, but we will have to see if this trend will remain in place through the rest of this earnings season.
About Zacks
Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978. The later formation of the Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock picking system; continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time!Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros.
Get the full Report on M – FREE
Get the full Report on TGT – FREE
Get the full Report on HD – FREE
Get the full Report on WMT – FREE
Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/zacksresearch
Join us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/Zacks-Investment-Research/57553657748?ref=ts
Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.
Media Contact
Zacks Investment Research
800-767-3771 ext. 9339
support@zacks.com
https://www.zacks.com
Zacks.com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources, which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions. Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks "Terms and Conditions of Service" disclaimer. www.zacks.com/disclaimer.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.