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Natural Gas Price Rides High on Bullish Inventory Data

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The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a smaller-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies following which the commodity traded up to its highest level since Jul 28.

About the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

The Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report – brought out by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday since 2002 – includes updates on natural gas market prices, the latest storage level estimates, recent weather data and other market activities or events.

The report provides an overview of the level of reserves and their movements, thereby helping investors understand the demand/supply dynamics of natural gas. It is an indicator of current gas prices and volatility that affect businesses of natural gas-weighted companies and related support plays.

Analysis of the Data: A Smaller-than-Expected Rise in Storage

Stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 28 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Aug 4, 2017, below the guidance (of 34 Bcf gain) as per the analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts, a leading independent commodities and energy data provider.

While the increase was higher than last year’s addition of 24 Bcf, it was well under the 5-year (2012-2016) average injection of 54 Bcf for the reported week. This caused the current storage level – at 3.038 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) – narrow its surplus to the five-year average to 61 Bcf (2.0%). Moreover, total stocks are 275 Bcf (8.3%) lower than last year’s levels at this time.

The lower-than-expected build in natural gas inventories instilled optimism and prompted spurts of buying. As a result, the commodity spiked 7.5% for the week to end Friday at $2.983 per MMBtu – a 3-week high. 

Positive Long-Term Thesis

Despite occasional hiccups, the natural gas demand situation looks promising with hot conditions set to prevail in most U.S. pockets in the later part of August and power generators burning more gas to meet intensifying cooling demand.

In any case, long-term fundamentals for the commodity continue to be supportive on the back of structural imbalances. While domestic natural gas production is expected to rebound this year, the growing use of liquefied natural gas (or LNG), booming exports to Mexico, replacing coal-fired power plants and higher demand from industrial projects will likely take care of the increased output. The resulting effect will ensure natural gas storage keeping pace with the 5-year average in the near future, with deficits piling up later on.

Over the summer, these secular tailwinds are likely to support natural gas sentiment and price.

The perceived price strength augurs well for natural gas-heavy upstream companies like Range Resources Corp. (RRC - Free Report) , Rice Energy Inc. , Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK - Free Report) , Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN - Free Report) , WPX Energy Inc. , Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. and EQT Corp. (EQT - Free Report) .

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