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Airline stocks are unlikely to set the stage on fire in the third quarter of 2017, results of which are around the corner. Multiple headwinds of late have prevented the space from flying higher.
This scenario is reflected in the latest three-month performance of the NYSE ARCA Airline Index. The sector tracker has shed value to the tune of 2.5% in the period. The headwinds are likely to negatively impact third-quarter results of airline stocks.
Let’s delve into the challenges confronting this key sector.
Back-to-Back Natural Calamities
Hurricane Harvey, followed by Irma, caused airline stocks like Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) – Free Report) and United Continental Holdings (UAL - Free Report) – Free Report) to call off multiple flights. United Continental was the worst hit by Harvey, as Houston is the carrier’s second-largest hub.
The Chicago-based carrier cited Harvey as one of the reasons for trimming its views with respect to pre-tax margin and passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM: a key measure of unit revenue) for the third quarter. In fact, Harvey is expected to hurt third-quarter PRASM to the tune of approximately 150 basis points. American Airlines Group (AAL - Free Report) – Free Report) also trimmed guidance for the third quarter due to the devastating impact of Irma.
That said, recent comments from management teams suggest that the hurricane impact may be a lot less severe than had been expected. This has helped the stocks recover some of their earlier losses.
High Costs
High fuel costs are also likely to limit third-quarter earnings growth. Harvey contributed to an increase in fuel prices due to gasoline shortages caused by the storm. Fuel costs have been on the rise lately, with oil prices hovering around the $50-a-barrel threshold. This upsurge can be attributed to an improving demand outlook for the commodity and OPEC deal extension talks.
United Continental projects third-quarter fuel price per gallon between $1.72 and $1.77 (earlier view: $1.56 to $1.61). The likes of Delta and Southwest Airlines (LUV - Free Report) – Free Report) have also lifted their respective forecasts for fuel prices.
Escalation in fuel cost apart, the surge in labor costs is also expected to distort the earnings picture of airlines. With airline companies inking pay-related deals with various labor groups, costs on this front have spiked. Escalated labor costs have hurt the bottom lines of carriers in the last few quarters, and the third quarter of 2017 is unlikely to be any different.
Soft Air Fares & Capacity Issues
Declining air fares are hurting the top lines of carriers. Low air fares bring good news for fliers but are a bane of airline companies.
According to research firm Hopper, air fares (roundtrip) in the United States are likely hit a low of $216 in October. Problems related to capacity over expansion are also hurting carriers. This is highlighted by the fact that the likes Spirit Airlines (SAVE - Free Report) – Free Report) witnessed declining load factors (percentage of seats filled by passengers) in August as capacity expansion outweighed traffic growth in the month. July traffic reports also unveiled declining load factors for most carriers.
Other Headwinds
The price war between low-cost carriers like Spirit Airlines and legacy carriers like United Continental is another cause for concern in this sector. Issues related to customer dissatisfaction have hurt carriers this year. Apart from the infamous David Dao incident, issues relating to customer dissatisfaction have surfaced at other carriers like Spirit Airlines and Delta.
Zacks Industry Rank Highlights Gloomy Scenario
The Zacks Industry Rank of 228 (out of 250 plus groups) carried by the Zacks Airline industry further highlights the plight of the airlines. This unfavorable rank places the companies in the bottom 11% of the Zacks industries.
We classify our entire 250-plus industries into two groups: the top half (i.e. industries with the best average Zacks Rank) and the bottom half (the industries with the worst average Zacks Rank).
Over the past decade, using a week’s rebalance, the top half beat the bottom half by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Many are little publicized and fly under the Wall Street radar. They're virtually unknown to the general public. Yet today's 220 Zacks Rank #1 "Strong Buys" were generated by the stock-picking system that has nearly tripled the market from 1988 through 2015. Its average gain has been a stellar +26% per year.See these high-potential stocks free >>.
Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights: Delta Air Lines, United Continental Holdings, American Airlines Group, Southwest Airlines and Spirit Airlines
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – October 6, 2017 – Today, Zacks Equity Research discusses the Industry: Airlines, Part 1, including Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) – Free Report), United Continental Holdings (UAL - Free Report) – Free Report), American Airlines Group (AAL - Free Report) – Free Report), Southwest Airlines (LUV - Free Report) – Free Report) and Spirit Airlines (SAVE - Free Report) – Free Report).
Industry: Airlines, Part 1
Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/131006/airline-industry-outlook---october-2017
Airline stocks are unlikely to set the stage on fire in the third quarter of 2017, results of which are around the corner. Multiple headwinds of late have prevented the space from flying higher.
This scenario is reflected in the latest three-month performance of the NYSE ARCA Airline Index. The sector tracker has shed value to the tune of 2.5% in the period. The headwinds are likely to negatively impact third-quarter results of airline stocks.
Let’s delve into the challenges confronting this key sector.
Back-to-Back Natural Calamities
Hurricane Harvey, followed by Irma, caused airline stocks like Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) – Free Report) and United Continental Holdings (UAL - Free Report) – Free Report) to call off multiple flights. United Continental was the worst hit by Harvey, as Houston is the carrier’s second-largest hub.
The Chicago-based carrier cited Harvey as one of the reasons for trimming its views with respect to pre-tax margin and passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM: a key measure of unit revenue) for the third quarter. In fact, Harvey is expected to hurt third-quarter PRASM to the tune of approximately 150 basis points. American Airlines Group (AAL - Free Report) – Free Report) also trimmed guidance for the third quarter due to the devastating impact of Irma.
That said, recent comments from management teams suggest that the hurricane impact may be a lot less severe than had been expected. This has helped the stocks recover some of their earlier losses.
High Costs
High fuel costs are also likely to limit third-quarter earnings growth. Harvey contributed to an increase in fuel prices due to gasoline shortages caused by the storm. Fuel costs have been on the rise lately, with oil prices hovering around the $50-a-barrel threshold. This upsurge can be attributed to an improving demand outlook for the commodity and OPEC deal extension talks.
United Continental projects third-quarter fuel price per gallon between $1.72 and $1.77 (earlier view: $1.56 to $1.61). The likes of Delta and Southwest Airlines (LUV - Free Report) – Free Report) have also lifted their respective forecasts for fuel prices.
Escalation in fuel cost apart, the surge in labor costs is also expected to distort the earnings picture of airlines. With airline companies inking pay-related deals with various labor groups, costs on this front have spiked. Escalated labor costs have hurt the bottom lines of carriers in the last few quarters, and the third quarter of 2017 is unlikely to be any different.
Soft Air Fares & Capacity Issues
Declining air fares are hurting the top lines of carriers. Low air fares bring good news for fliers but are a bane of airline companies.
According to research firm Hopper, air fares (roundtrip) in the United States are likely hit a low of $216 in October. Problems related to capacity over expansion are also hurting carriers. This is highlighted by the fact that the likes Spirit Airlines (SAVE - Free Report) – Free Report) witnessed declining load factors (percentage of seats filled by passengers) in August as capacity expansion outweighed traffic growth in the month. July traffic reports also unveiled declining load factors for most carriers.
Other Headwinds
The price war between low-cost carriers like Spirit Airlines and legacy carriers like United Continental is another cause for concern in this sector. Issues related to customer dissatisfaction have hurt carriers this year. Apart from the infamous David Dao incident, issues relating to customer dissatisfaction have surfaced at other carriers like Spirit Airlines and Delta.
Zacks Industry Rank Highlights Gloomy Scenario
The Zacks Industry Rank of 228 (out of 250 plus groups) carried by the Zacks Airline industry further highlights the plight of the airlines. This unfavorable rank places the companies in the bottom 11% of the Zacks industries.
We classify our entire 250-plus industries into two groups: the top half (i.e. industries with the best average Zacks Rank) and the bottom half (the industries with the worst average Zacks Rank).
Over the past decade, using a week’s rebalance, the top half beat the bottom half by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Click here to know more: About Zacks Industry Rank
Strong Stocks that Should Be in the News
Many are little publicized and fly under the Wall Street radar. They're virtually unknown to the general public. Yet today's 220 Zacks Rank #1 "Strong Buys" were generated by the stock-picking system that has nearly tripled the market from 1988 through 2015. Its average gain has been a stellar +26% per year.See these high-potential stocks free >>.
Get the full Report on DAL - FREE
Get the full Report on UAL - FREE
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Get the full Report on LUV - FREE
Get the full Report on SAVE - FREE
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.