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Will Aerospace Unit Drive Northrop's (NOC) Q3 Earnings?

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Defense giant Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter 2017 results on Oct 25, before the opening bell.

Aerospace segment continues to be the major growth driver for Northrop Grumman. The company’s third-quarter results too is expected to be gain from the same.  Substantial inflow of orders from Pentagon for the company’s varied product offerings also remains a major catalyst.

Let’s discuss the factors influencing Northrop Grumman’s quarterly results, in brief.

Aerospace Segment ­– A Key Catalyst

Aerospace Systems segment that fetch almost half of Northrop Grumman’s sales is a primary contributor of the company’s quarterly growth.

Notably, increased demand as well as deliveries of manned aircraft mainly boosts this segment’s sales growth. In the third quarter, the company won a number of contracts from the Pentagon in this regard.

Among them, the significant one is an Army contract worth $117 million for offering logistics support services for government-owned fixed wing fleet performing special electronic mission aircraft missions.

Impressively, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Aerospace Systems segment stands at $2,928 million, reflecting annual growth of 12.9%.

Order Flows to Drive Sales

Defense majors have been receiving a slew of contracts from Pentagon and foreign U.S. allies. Northrop Grumman too has been no exception in this regard. During the third quarter, the company’s notable contract wins include a contract worth $124.7 million to support the AN/APR-39 program, a $329 million Air Force contract for the Ground-based Strategic Deterrent and another order of $409 million for Next Generation Thermal, Power and Controls (NGT-PAC) program.

Consequently Northrop Grumman is expected to gain from the number of contracts it has won in the third quarter. Evidently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s third-quarter sales is pegged at $6.3 billion, reflecting 2.6% year-over-year growth.

Other Factors to Consider

Segment-wise, Mission Systems business unit has been benefiting from the company’s successful cost-reduction initiatives. Considering this trend to continue in the second half of the year, Northrop Grumman has increased this unit’s annual sales expectation during second-quarter earnings call. Keeping this into consideration, we may expect the third-quarter results to reflect strong sales growth for this unit. Evidently, our consensus estimate called for sales of $1,156 million for Mission Systems, reflecting annual growth of 1%.

On the flip side, increased unallocated corporate expenses and effective tax rate dented the company’s second-quarter earnings growth. Anticipating similar expenses to linger, our consensus estimate for Northrop Grumman’s earnings of $2.92 per share reflects 3.2% annual decline.

Around the end of the third quarter, Northrop Grumman announced that it has agreed to acquire rocket-maker Orbital ATK for $9.2 billion. Although no direct impact of this deal will get reflected in the upcoming results, further updates from the transaction can be expected once the company releases its third-quarter report.

Earnings Whisper

Our proven model does not conclusively shows that Northrop Grumman is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here, as we have mentioned below:

Zacks ESP: Northrop Grumman has an Earnings ESP of -1.93%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate is pegged at $2.87, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.92. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Northrop Grumman currently carries a Zacks Rank #2, which along with a negative earnings ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Meanwhile, we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks that Warrant a Look

Here are some defense companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII - Free Report) is expected to report third-quarter 2017 results on Nov 8. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.04% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS - Free Report) is expected to report third-quarter 2017 results on Nov 2. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.75% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Recent Peer Release

Textron Inc. (TXT - Free Report) recently reported third-quarter 2017 adjusted earnings from continuing operations of 65 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 62 cents by 4.8%. Total revenues in the quarter were $3.48 billion, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.54 billion by 1.5%.

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