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Noble Energy's (NBL) Raised Outlook to Reflect in Q3 Earnings

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Noble Energy Inc. is scheduled to release third-quarter 2017 results after the closing bellon Oct 30. Last quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 26.7%. Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to this announcement.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Noble Energy is likely to beat estimates because it has the right combination of two key ingredients. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to be able to beat estimates and Noble Energy has the right mix.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is +1.29%.

Zacks Rank: Noble Energy currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The combination of Noble Energy’s favorable Zacks Rank and positive ESP makes us reasonably confident of a positive surprise this season.

Conversely, we caution against Sell-rated stocks (#4 or #5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Noble Energy Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Factors to Consider

The company recently updated outlook for third-quarter 2017 owing to solid production from its organic and inorganic assets. On the production side, the total oil volumes for the third quarter reflected a 4% increase from prior expectation. The company’s natural gas volumes and production of natural gas liquids (NGLs) have also been hiked for the quarter.

Notably, the company updated outlook on the back of several favorable factors. Better-than-expected rise in DJ Basin volumes due to robust performance in Wells Ranch and East Pony have led to an increased oil production. Additionally, its first central gathering facility came online in July and has been connected to the Advantage Pipeline carrying crude volumes to Crane County, TX. Robust performance in Eagle Ford due to increase in South Gates Ranch activity and Alba field reflected an overall increase in the production volumes.

On the sales end, volumes for the third quarter have been increased by 3% from the previous expectation. Toward this, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Noble Energy’s total crude oil sales volume per day is currently pegged at 126 MBoe/d compared with 119 MBoe/d during the prior-year quarter. Additionally, its total natural gas liquids sales volumes have also increased from 60 MBoe/d to 66 MBoe/d at present.

In the quarter, the company also completed the acquisition of Clayton Williams Energy, Inc. which further reinforced its position in U.S onshore.

Consequentially, we expect the company’s raised outlook for the quarter on the back of several other supporting factors to positively reflect on its third-quarter results.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a few players in the same industry that too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Earthstone Energy, Inc. is expected to report third-quarter earnings 2017 on Nov 14. It has an Earnings ESP of +49.9% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Noble Midstream Partners LP has an Earnings ESP of +1.9% and a Zacks Rank #1. It is slated to report third-quarter 2017 earnings on Oct 30.

Denbury Resources Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +100% and a Zacks Rank #2. It is scheduled to report third-quarter 2017 earnings on Nov 7.

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