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Why Is McDonald's (MCD) Up 3.2% Since the Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) . Shares have added about 3.2% in that time frame, outperforming the market.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

McDonald's Tops Q3 Earnings on Solid Comps Growth

McDonald's posted mixed results in the third quarter of 2017, wherein though the bottom line outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate, the top line lagged the same.

Earnings and Revenue Discussion

Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.76 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.75 by 0.6% and improved 9% from the year-ago quarter. The upside reflects stronger operating performance and G&A savings. Notably, adjusted earnings exclude the impact of current-year non-recurring gains and these unrelated strategic charges.

Meanwhile, foreign currency translation had a negative impact of 2 cents per share on earnings in the quarter. At constant currency, earnings grew 7% year over year.

Revenues of $5.75 billion declined 10% year over year, mainly due to the impact of the company’s strategic refranchising initiative. At constant currency, the figure declined 12%. Moreover, the same lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.80 billion by nearly 1%.

Behind the Headlines Numbers

In the quarter, revenues at company-operated restaurants declined 23% to $3.06 billion. However, the same at franchise-operated restaurants increased 10% to $2.69 billion.

Global comps grew 6%, supported by positive guest counts across all the segments. This marked the ninth consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales. Meanwhile, comps growth was slightly lower than the last quarter’s increase of 6.6%.

Segment Details

Effective Jul 1, 2015, McDonald's began reporting results under four segments: U.S. (the company's largest segment), International Lead Markets (mature markets including Australia, Canada, France, Germany and the U.K.), High-Growth Markets (markets that have high restaurant expansion and franchising potential such as China, Italy, Poland, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland and the Netherlands) and Foundational Markets (the remaining markets in McDonald's system).

U.S.: Comps grew 4.1% in the third quarter owing to the positive impact of the national beverage and McPick 2 value promotions and the continued success of the Signature Crafted premium sandwich platform. Markedly, this segment continues to build momentum as it executes strategic menu, value and convenience initiatives to attract customers. In fact, comps growth was better than the prior quarter rise of 3.9%.

Segment operating income also increased 6% on the back of higher sales-driven franchised margin dollars and G&A savings.

International Lead Markets: Comps at this segment grew 5.7%, lower than the 6.3% rise witnessed in the last quarter. Continued momentum in the U.K. and Canada along with upbeat results across all other markets drove comps.

Operating income was up 21%, including the impact of foreign currency translation. At constant currency, the figure was up 17%, primarily on the back of sales-driven improvements in franchised margin dollars.

High-Growth Markets: Comps grew 6.2%, slightly lower than the prior-quarter’s 7% increase, led by strong performance in China as well as positive results across majority of the segment.

Markedly, the segment's operating income for the quarter included a gain of roughly $850 million associated to the refranchising of China and Hong Kong, partially offset by unrelated non-cash impairment charges. Excluding these items, the segment's operating income rose 7% (3% in constant currencies), reflecting higher sales-driven margin dollars.

Foundational Markets: Comps in Foundational Markets grew 10.2% on the back of positive sales performance across all geographic regions. However, the figure came in lower than the 13% growth recorded in the last quarter.

Meanwhile, operating income declined due to the company's refranchising initiatives and elevated restaurant technology spending, somewhat offset by the benefit from 7 prior year's strategic charges comparison.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. There has been one revision higher for the current quarter.

VGM Scores

At this time, McDonald's stock has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the momentum front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

The company's stock is suitable solely for growth based on our style scores.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock. The magnitude of these revisions also looks promising. Notably, the stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect in-line returns from the stock in the next few months.


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