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What's in the Cards for Noble Energy (NBL) in Q4 Earnings?

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Noble Energy Inc. is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2017 results on Feb 20. Last quarter, the company reported a positive earnings surprise of 84.62%. Let’s see, how things are shaping up prior to this announcement.

Factors to Consider

Noble Energy is focused on improving its United States onshore assets and oil volumes. The company has taken initiatives to divest non-core assets and primarily concentrate on U.S. onshore and Eastern Mediterranean assets, which might help boost its cash flow and margins. Fourth-quarter U.S. Onshore volumes are anticipated to be 15% higher than the third quarter of 2017 with each commodity expected to increase by double-digits.  This clearly indicates the possibility of acquiring a major chunk of sales volume from the company’s domestic operations.

Noble Energy expects its fourth-quarter total sales volume in the range of 380,000-390,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d), of which, the United States sales volume is estimated in the band of 270-284 Mboe/d. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales volume is pegged at 386 Mboe/d, better than 355 Mboe/d sold during the third quarter and near the higher end of the projected guidance.  

A possible rise in crude oil prices is likely to drive the company’s top line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for crude oil prices in the United States stands at $49.40 per barrel, up 6.5% year over year. Better sales volume combined with higher realized prices for commodities is predicted to positively impact the company’s earnings.

Noble Energy Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
 

Noble Energy Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Noble Energy Inc. Quote

 

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Noble Energy is likely to beat estimates this quarter because the stock needs to have the right combination of the two key ingredients for this to happen: a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). But that is not the case here as you will see below.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks ESP: Noble Energy has an Earnings ESP of -9.09% as the Most Accurate Estimate of 3 cents is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 4 cents.

Zacks Rank: Noble Energy carries a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, a company needs a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings surprise. Hence, this combination leaves surprise prediction inconclusive.

Conversely, we caution against Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few players worth considering from the same industry with the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.06% and a Zacks Rank of 1. The company is likely to report fourth-quarter earnings numbers on Feb 27. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

SilverBow Resources, Inc. (SBOW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.59% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company is slated to release fourth-quarter earnings results on Mar 1.

WildHorse Resource Development Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +4.55% and is a Zacks #1 Ranked player. The company is set to announce fourth-quarter financial figures on Mar 7.

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