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Key Factors to Influence Penumbra's (PEN) Earnings in Q4

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Penumbra, Inc. (PEN - Free Report) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2017 results on Feb 27, after market close.

Last quarter, the company posted a positive earnings surprise of 114.3%. Moreover, Penumbra has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters, the average positive surprise being 20.2%. Let’s take a look at how things are shaping up prior to this announcement.

Catalysts

Continued Uptake of Penumbra System: Over the past few quarters, Penumbra showcased strong top-line performance on consistent growth in neuro arm. It is to be noted that neuro growth was mainly driven by sales of the Penumbra system for ischemic stroke. The company witnessed increased sequential growth on higher procedural volumes. Moreover, the company is actively pursuing marketing strategies. In this regard, Penumbra’s Get Ahead of Stroke campaign was recognized as the most impactful by the National Stroke Association in 2017.

Favorable Neuro Business Trend: Management seems impressed with the efforts to boost awareness in the domestic region. It seems to be also encouraged by the increased cooperation between hospitals to handle stroke cases. Also, larger hospital systems are investing to increase the number of new centers. However, management is a bit cautious about the growth trend which might remain uneven in the coming quarters.

Penumbra, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

 

Strategies Buoy Optimism: The company is presently focusing on driving innovation, product development and geographic expansion. This is expected to help Penumbra maintain the bullish trend in the to-be-reported quarter.

In this regard, Penumbra presented results from an independently-conducted COMPASS Trial and the company-sponsored PROMISE Study at the International Stroke Conference 2018 in January 2018. These studies were focused on Penumbra’s aspiration thrombectomy system for ischemic stroke revascularization.

Moreover, we are encouraged by the company’s launch of 3D Revascularization Device, a technologically advanced stroke device developed for efficient aspiration with ACE Reperfusion Catheters in first-half 2017.

Growing Peripheral Vascular Business: The Peripheral Vascular portfolio comprising Indigo System, embolization platform including RUBY Coil, POD (Penumbra Occlusion Device), and POD Packing Coil along with LANTERN microcatheter is quite strong. Moreover, the company has been witnessing solid contribution from this segment over the past few quarters. The trend is expected to continue in the to-be-reported quarter.

Strong Geographical Performance: Penumbra has been delivering strong performance in both domestic and international markets on solid contributions from neuro business. We expect the trend to continue in the fourth quarter as well.

Rising Operating Expenses: In third-quarter 2017, the company witnessed a rise in operating expenses. We expect escalating costs and expenses to continue to keep margins under pressure in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, research and development expenses increased 25.2% in the third quarter. With the company remaining focused on product launches, we expect fourth-quarter results to reflect high expenses.

Further, foreign exchange fluctuations and stiff competition from major commercial laboratories and hospitals continue to raise caution.

Overall, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues of $87.8 million reflects a 20.3% rise from the prior-year quarter.

Here is what our quantitative model predicts:

Penumbra has the right combination of two main ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP  and a favorable Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Penumbra is +200%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Penumbra’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP.

Moreover, the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of a penny is narrower than the loss of 8 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a few other medical stocks worth considering as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Universal Health Services (UHS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.96% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Exelixis (EXEL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.94% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +264.71% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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