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What's in the Offing for Univar (UNVR) This Earnings Season?

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Univar Inc. is slated to release fourth-quarter 2017 results ahead of the bell on Feb 28.

The chemical company swung to a profit (on a reported basis) of $38.9 million or 28 cents per share in third-quarter 2017 from a loss of $63 million or 46 cents a year ago. Adjusted earnings of 36 cents per share for the quarter topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 23 cents.

The company’s revenues rose 2.5% year over year to $2,048.7 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,949 million.

The company topped earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing in one with an average positive surprise of 21.9%.

Shares of Univar have lost 14% over a year, underperforming the industry’s 19.7% gain.

 

 

Can the company surprise investors or is it heading for a possible pullback? Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

The company, during third-quarter call, said that it expects adverse impacts of hurricanes to continue in the fourth quarter.  For fourth-quarter 2017, it expects adjusted EBITDA growth of mid-single digits from previous year's figure of $134.5 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues for Univar for the to-be-reported quarter is $1,849 billion, reflecting an increase of 2% from the year-ago quarter.

Net sales for Univar’s USA segment for the fourth quarter is projected to witness a 1.5% decline year over year as the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is pegged at $1,068 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to rise 11.5% year over year as the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is $87 million for the fourth quarter.

Net sales for Univar’s Canada segment for the fourth quarter is projected to witness a 7.4% rise year over year as the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is pegged at $260 million. Adjusted EBITDA is also expected to increase 8.9% year over year as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is $27 million for the fourth quarter.

Moreover, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales for the EMEA segment is expected to be $416 million, reflecting an estimated 5.6% increase. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to to be flat year over year as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is $29 million for the fourth quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales for the Rest of the World is expected to be $105 million for the fourth quarter, reflecting an estimated 14.1% rise year over year. Adjusted EBITDA is also expected to increase 15.4% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is $9 million for the fourth quarter.

Revenues from the USA division dipped 3% year over year to $1.2 billion in the third quarter. Gross profit rose 1.5% to $273.4 million due to the company's sales force execution initiatives and improved mix.

Revenues from the Canada segment went up around 15% to $299.9 million, driven by higher average selling prices and increased volumes. Gross profit rose roughly 1.1% to $56.2 million in the quarter.

The EMEA segment raked in sales of $456.9 million, up 10.8%, helped by higher average selling prices that were partly offset by reduced volumes in lower margin commodity products. Gross profit rose around 10.9% to $102.9 million.

Sales from the Rest of World unit rose 2.5% to $106.9 million. Hurricane Harvey and the earthquakes in Mexico affected the company’s business in Latin America in the quarter. Gross profit grew 9.3% year over year to $22.3 million.

Univar, last year, outlined its long-term growth strategy and financial targets. The company announced that operational excellence, commercial greatness and “one Univar”, will drive sustainable growth.

According to Univar, the company is well poised to create significant value through three powerful growth pathways like increased market share, improved margins and market expansion. It is also focused on increasing value for supplier partners, customers and shareholders.



Univar Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

 

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Univar is likely to beat the estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here as you will see below:

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP for Univar is currently pegged at 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 26 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Univar currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 which when combined with a 0.00% ESP, makes surprise prediction difficult.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you can consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this quarter:

Veritiv Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +41.03% and flaunts a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.16% and flaunts a Zacks Rank #1.

Ferroglobe PLC (GSM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +61.77% and sports a Zacks Rank #3.

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