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Will Volume Growth Boost Union Pacific's (UNP) Q1 Earnings?

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Union Pacific Corporation (UNP - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2018 results on Apr 26, before he market opens.

In fourth-quarter 2017, the company posted a negative earnings surprise of 0.65%. However, its impressive earnings record reflects outpacing of the Zacks Consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters with an average beat of 3.30%.

The scenario pertaining to this quarter looks encouraging for the company. The stock has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings being revised 1.2% upward over the last 30 days, reflecting optimism surrounding the stock.

Given this backdrop, let’s delve deeper to unearth the factors likely to influence the company’s impending results:

Higher freight revenues are expected to boost Union Pacific's first-quarter results. The metric is likely to increase on the back of overall volume growth among other factors. The company expects expansion of volumes in the first quarter in the low single-digit range.

Additionally, with increasing growth of intermodal of late, the segment is likely to perform well in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for intermodal revenues is pegged at $983 million, above $908 million reported a year ago.

The company’s cost-cutting efforts are a further positive which is likely to improve the quarterly operating ratio and aid in bottom-line growth in turn.

The new tax law is another positive and will drive the bottom line in the quarter. The huge tax savings from the reduced corporate tax rate owing to the new tax law, has led the company to undertake a series of shareholder-friendly moves. Notably, in February, the company raised its quarterly dividend by 10% to 73 cents per share. Such investor-oriented activities indicate the company’s financial prosperity.

However, the company’s automotive unit has been suffering a sluggish vehicle production in the United States for quite some time and the first-quarter is unlikely to be any different.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter automotive revenues stands at $484 million, lower than $504 million reported a year ago.


What Does the Zacks Model Say?

Our proven model too shows that Union Pacific is likely to beat on earnings this quarter as it comprises the perfect combination of the following two key ingredients:

Zacks ESP: Union Pacific has an Earnings ESP of +0.04%. A positive ESP indicates a likely earnings surprise. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Union Pacific carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which increases the predictive power of ESP. Notably, stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 have significantly higher chances of beating estimates.

Conversely, the Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is witnessing negative estimate revisions.

Other Stocks to Consider

Investors interested in the broader Transportation sector may also consider stocks like JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU - Free Report) , Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD - Free Report) and Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE - Free Report) as these possess the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around.

JetBlue Airways is a Zacks #3 Ranked player and has an Earnings ESP of +0.06%. The company is slated to release first-quarter numbers on Apr 24.
 
Expeditors is a #3 Ranked player and has an Earnings ESP of +2.09%. The company will report first-quarter earnings figures on May 8.

Spirit Airlines has an Earnings ESP of +2.46% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is scheduled to announce first-quarter results on Apr 26. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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