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Should You Buy Ford (F) Stock Ahead of Earnings?

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Shares of Ford (F - Free Report) rose on Tuesday in a sign that investors might be expecting big things from the automotive industry giant’s first quarter financial results. With that said, let’s take a look to see what’s really in store.

Over the last year, new Ford CEO Jim Hackett has talked a lot about the need for the company to cut costs, noting that Ford hopes to slash $14 billion by 2020. Therefore, investors will want to pay close attention to any costing cutting updates in Ford’s Q1 earnings report.

At the same time, the historic auto company has vowed to boost its electric vehicle investment to $11 billion by 2022. Ford also announced plans to offer a lineup of 40 hybrid and fully electric vehicles by that time, as part of an effort to remain competitive in a vehicle market that is slowly shifting toward electric.

Ford’s electric and hybrid vehicle push should help the company compete with the likes of Volkswagen , General Motors (GM - Free Report) , Toyota (TM - Free Report) , and Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) in the EV race.

Despite these new longer-term initiatives, Ford stock is still down 3% over the last year. But Ford could easily break out of its current slump in the near-term if the company posts strong first quarter results.

Latest Outlook & Valuation

Our current Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for Ford to post revenues of $37.05 billion, which would mark just a 1.6% climb from the year-ago period. Meanwhile, the company’s quarterly earnings are expected to pop by 5.1% to $0.41 per share.

Clearly, Ford’s top and bottom line growth estimates are just two of the many things investors will be concerned with when the company reports its first quarter financial results on Wednesday. We can also turn to our exclusive non-financial metrics consensus estimate file to help prepare.

The Zacks Consensus NFM file contains detailed estimate data for business segment metrics and non-financial metrics reported by companies. The data is acquired from digest and contributing broker models and includes the independent research of expert stock market analysts.

According to these consensus estimates, Ford’s North American revenues are expected to reach $24.27 billion, which would mark roughly 1% growth from the prior year period. The company’s European sales are projected to fall from $7.60 billion to $7.52 billion. Investors should be pleased to note that Ford’s Asia Pacific sales are expected to climb by 5.3% to $3.37 billion.

Heading into Tuesday, Ford was trading with a Forward P/E of 7.2. This marked a substantial discount compared to the “Automotive - Domestic” industry’s average of 11.5. It is also worth noting that Ford has hovered within this range for most of the last year, while consistently trading well below the industry’s average.

Earnings ESP Whispers

Investors will also want to understand what chance Ford has to surprise investors with better-than-expected earnings results. For this, we turn to our Earnings ESP figure.

Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) looks to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst estimates. This is done because, generally speaking, when an analyst posts an estimate right before an earnings release, it means that they have fresh information which could potentially be more accurate than what analysts thought about a company two or three months ago.

A positive Earnings ESP paired with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better ranking helps us feel confident about the potential for an earnings beat. In fact, our 10-year backtest has revealed that this methodology has accurately produced a positive surprise 70% of the time.

In contrast, a stock with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or worse, coupled with a negative Earnings ESP, is one that we typically want to avoid during earnings season.

Ford is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and rocks an Earnings ESP of -4.88%, with the company’s Most Accurate Estimate—the representation of the most recent analyst sentiment—calling for earnings of $0.39 per share. This figure comes in 2 cents below our current consensus estimate, which means that investors should consider Ford a stock that could fall short of quarterly earnings estimates.

Surprise History

Ford’s earnings surprise history and the effect that these surprises have had on its share prices are two other important factors to consider ahead of the U.S. automotive power’s earnings report.

Ford Motor Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Ford Motor Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise | Ford Motor Company Quote

Investors will see that Ford has posted mixed earnings results over the last couple of years. However, Ford’s average earnings surprise is 16.3% in the trailing four periods, which includes its significant fourth quarter miss. With that said, even Ford’s quarterly earnings beats haven’t often led to positive momentum immediately following its quarterly releases.

We judge the price effect of these earnings beats by comparing the closing price of the stock two days before the report and two days after the report. Ford stock has turned negative in seven out of these last eight windows.

Ford is scheduled to report its Q1 financial results after market close on Wednesday, April 25.

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