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Can Celgene (CELG) Keep Its Earnings Streak Alive in Q1?

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Celgene Corporation is scheduled to report first-quarter 2018 results on May 4, before the opening bell.

Celgene has an excellent track record with the company beating earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average beat of 3%.  In the last reported quarter, the company topped estimates by 2.56%.

 

Celgene Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

Celgene Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise | Celgene Corporation Quote

 

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Celgene is likely to beat earnings estimates this quarter. This is because it has the right combination of two key ingredients, a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold).

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +0.63%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Celgene currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. The combination of Zacks Rank #2 and a positive ESP makes us confident of an earnings beat.

Conversely, Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Revlimid to Drive Growth

Celgene’s key growth driver, Revlimid, continues to drive revenues at the company. Revlimid is approved for several indications including MM, myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and mantle cell lymphoma (MCL). Market share gains in key markets and longer treatment duration are contributing to the drug’s growth.

Meanwhile, Celgene is working on expanding Revlimid’s label further. Revlimid received FDA approval for use as a maintenance treatment in NDMM patients after they receive an autologous stem-cell transplant. The drug was also approved in the EU for the same. NDMM market share continues to grow outside of the United States with a positive uptake both in the EU and in Japan.  The company is working further on the label expansion of the drug.

Continued momentum in the core indication, label expansion and global launches should help the product to keep contributing to the top line. However, in December 2017, a late stage study on Revlimid in combination with Roche Holdings’ (RHHBY - Free Report) Rituxan failed.

Revlimid sales are projected around $9.4 billion for 2018. The Zacks Consensus estimate for Revlimid currently stands at $2.2 billion for the first quarter.

Pomalyst’s revenues are projected around $1.9 billion. The drug’s label was recently updated in the United States and the EU to include data from a pooled pharmacokinetics analysis of patients with relapsed and/or refractory MM and impaired renal function.  Pomalyst, in combination with Darzalex and dexamethasone for relapsed/refractory myeloma was recently approved by the FDA and should propel sales further. These should act as growth drivers leading to share and duration gains in the future.

Abraxane sales are estimated to be around $1 billion. Otezla sales are now projected at $1.5 billion.

During first-quarter earnings call investors are expected to remain focused on the company’s performance and label expansion efforts, along with updates on recent acquisitions and pipeline.

Earlier in 2018, Celgene acquired Juno Therapeutics and added JCAR017 (lisocabtagene maraleucel; liso-cel) to its lymphoma pipeline. JCAR017 is a best-in-class CD19-directed CAR-T candidate, currently in a pivotal program for relapsed and/or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

During the quarter, Celgene suffered a setback when it received Refusal to File letter from the FDA regarding its New Drug Application (“NDA”) for multiple sclerosis candidate ozanimod. The candidate is being developed for the treatment of patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (“MS”). The FDA stated that the nonclinical and clinical pharmacology sections in the NDA were inadequate to allow a complete review. Hence, Celgene will request a Type A meeting with the FDA to ascertain the additional information needed for resubmission of the NDA.

Revlimid is set to lose patent exclusivity soon and hence Celgene is desperately trying to revive its portfolio.

Celgene also announced a development and co-promotion agreement with bluebird bio, Inc. (BLUE - Free Report) . Both companies have entered into a deal to co-develop and co-promote bb2121, an experimental anti-B-cell maturation antigen chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapy for the potential treatment of patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma in the United States.

Hence, we expect the management to throw further light on its plans going forward.

Celgene’s stock has gained 16.8% in the year so far compared to the industry’s decline of 10.7%.

 

 

Stock to Consider

Here is one stock in the healthcare sector that you may want to consider, as our model shows that it has the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this quarter.

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +25.0% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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