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Zacks Earnings Trends Highlights: Wal-Mart, Macy's and Home Depot
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For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – May 18, 2018 – Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian says, "Total earnings for these Retail sector companies that have reported results are up +22.1% from the same period last year on +10.1% higher revenues, with 72.7% beating EPS estimates and 63.6% beating revenue estimates."
Strong Retail Sector Earnings Results
Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trendsreport. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
• The Retail sector’s Q1 results show all the positives that have been seeing from most of the other sectors this earnings season.
• With results from 84.2% of the Retail sector’s market cap in the S&P 500 out, earnings and revenue growth is on track to be notably above other historical periods, though positive revenue surprises are not as numerous as had been the trend in other recent periods.
• For the 461 S&P 500 members that have reported Q1 results already, total earnings are up +24.2% from the same period last year on +8.7% higher revenues, with 77.7% beating EPS estimates and 74.6% beating revenue estimates. The earnings season has ended for 10 of the 16 Zacks sectors.
• Except for the proportion of these 461 index members beating EPS and revenue estimates, which are tracking roughly in-line with the preceding quarter’s level, growth in Q1 is notably tracking above historical periods.
• Looking at Q1 as a whole, total earnings are expected to be up +23.9% from the same period last year on +8.5% higher revenues, the highest quarterly earnings growth pace in 7 years. Net Income margins for the quarter are on track to expand by 1.5 percentage points, with the strongest gains at the Finance, Technology and Energy sectors.
• Q1 Earnings growth is in double-digit territory from the year-earlier level for 13 of the 16 Zacks sectors, including the Technology and Finance sectors. The Auto sector has the weakest growth of all 16 sectors, with +0.3% earnings growth on +1.4% higher revenues.
• Energy sector earnings increased +75.7% from the same period last year on +14.2% higher revenues. Excluding the Energy sector, total S&P 500 earnings growth drops from +23.9% to +22.2%.
• For the small-cap S&P 600 index, we now have Q1 results 88.5% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these companies are up +21.4% on +9.7% higher revenues, with 60.5% beating EPS estimates and 72.2% beating revenue estimates. In addition to earnings and revenue growth, revenue surprises are notably tracking above historical periods for the small caps.
• For the quarter as whole, total S&P 600 earnings are expected to be up +18.2% on +9.8% higher revenues. We have more details about small-cap data on page 28 of the full report.
• For full-year 2018, total earnings for the S&P 500 index are expected to be up +19.4% on +5.8% higher revenues. For full-year 2019, earnings are expected to be up +9.4% on +4.4% higher revenues.
• The implied ‘EPS’ for the index, calculated using current 2018 P/E of 17.5X and index close, as of May 17th , is $156.01. Using the same methodology, the index ‘EPS’ works out to $170.70 for 2019 (P/E of 15.9X) and $187.21 for 2020 (P/E of 14.5X). The multiples for 2018 and 2019 have been calculated using the index’s total market cap and aggregate bottom-up earnings for each year.
Retail Sector Scorecard
With results from Wal-Mart (WMT - Free Report) , Macy’s (M - Free Report) and Home Depot (HD - Free Report) out now, we have Q1 results from the equivalent of 84.2% of the sector’s market capitalization in the in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these Retail sector companies that have reported results are up +22.1% from the same period last year on +10.1% higher revenues, with 72.7% beating EPS estimates and 63.6% beating revenue estimates.
Please note that the Zacks Retail sector includes the online vendors and restaurant players in addition to ‘traditional’ brick-and-mortar players.
The comparison charts above show that while growth (both earnings as well as revenues) is tracking notably above historical periods, the proportion of positive EPS surprises is in-line with historical periods and revenue surprises are tracking below the 4-quarter average (but above the 12-quarter average).
With respect to growth, Amazon’s blockbuster numbers, particularly on the revenues front, has a big role in the very strong growth picture at this stage. Amazon’s Q1 earnings increased +125% on +42.9% higher revenues, with the net dollar increase in the online retailer’s revenues an impressive $15.3 billion.
The right-hand chart that compares the sector’s Q1 earnings and revenue growth on an ex-Amazon basis shows that growth still compares favorably with other periods even without the online giant’s considerable contribution.
Weak Revisions Trend
While growth in Q1 has been very strong, analysts have been hesitant to raise their estimates for Q2. The fact is that aggregate expectations for the quarter have barely budged since the quarter got underway.
This revisions trend is in contrast to the very positive revisions trend we saw ahead of the start of the Q1 earnings season. A big part of the positive revisions we saw at the start of the year was directly tied to the impact of tax cuts. But the estimated trend had been moving favorably since the second half of 2017 and we expected some of that to show up in estimates for Q2. This didn’t happen, as the above chart shows.
There is not much change to estimates for the second half of the year either.
Note: Sheraz Mian manages the Zacks equity research department. He is an acknowledged earnings expert whose commentaries and analyses appear on Zacks.com and in the print and electronic media. His weekly earnings related articles include Earnings Trendsand Earnings Preview. He manages the Zacks Top 10 and Focus List portfolios and writes the Weekly Market Analysis article for Zacks Premium subscribers.
Zacks Editor-in-Chief Goes "All In" on This Stock
Full disclosure, Kevin Matras now has more of his own money in one particular stock than in any other. He believes in its short-term profit potential and also in its prospects to more than double by 2019. Today he reveals and explains his surprising move in a new Special Report.
Note: Sheraz Mian manages the Zacks equity research department. He is an acknowledged earnings expert whose commentaries and analyses appear on Zacks.com and in the print and electronic media. His weekly earnings related articles include Earnings Trends and Earnings Preview. He manages the Zacks Top 10 and Focus List portfolios and writes the Weekly Market Analysis article for Zacks Premium subscribers.
If you want an email notification each time Sheraz Mian publishes a new article, pleaseclick here>>>
About Zacks Equity Research
Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.
Continuous analyst coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.
Strong Stocks that Should Be in the News
Many are little publicized and fly under the Wall Street radar. They're virtually unknown to the general public. Yet today's 220 Zacks Rank #1 "Strong Buys" were generated by the stock-picking system that has nearly tripled the market from 1988 through 2015. Its average gain has been a stellar +26% per year. See these high-potential stocks free >>
Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Earnings Trends Highlights: Wal-Mart, Macy's and Home Depot
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – May 18, 2018 – Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian says, "Total earnings for these Retail sector companies that have reported results are up +22.1% from the same period last year on +10.1% higher revenues, with 72.7% beating EPS estimates and 63.6% beating revenue estimates."
Strong Retail Sector Earnings Results
Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
• The Retail sector’s Q1 results show all the positives that have been seeing from most of the other sectors this earnings season.
• With results from 84.2% of the Retail sector’s market cap in the S&P 500 out, earnings and revenue growth is on track to be notably above other historical periods, though positive revenue surprises are not as numerous as had been the trend in other recent periods.
• For the 461 S&P 500 members that have reported Q1 results already, total earnings are up +24.2% from the same period last year on +8.7% higher revenues, with 77.7% beating EPS estimates and 74.6% beating revenue estimates. The earnings season has ended for 10 of the 16 Zacks sectors.
• Except for the proportion of these 461 index members beating EPS and revenue estimates, which are tracking roughly in-line with the preceding quarter’s level, growth in Q1 is notably tracking above historical periods.
• Looking at Q1 as a whole, total earnings are expected to be up +23.9% from the same period last year on +8.5% higher revenues, the highest quarterly earnings growth pace in 7 years. Net Income margins for the quarter are on track to expand by 1.5 percentage points, with the strongest gains at the Finance, Technology and Energy sectors.
• Q1 Earnings growth is in double-digit territory from the year-earlier level for 13 of the 16 Zacks sectors, including the Technology and Finance sectors. The Auto sector has the weakest growth of all 16 sectors, with +0.3% earnings growth on +1.4% higher revenues.
• Energy sector earnings increased +75.7% from the same period last year on +14.2% higher revenues. Excluding the Energy sector, total S&P 500 earnings growth drops from +23.9% to +22.2%.
• For the small-cap S&P 600 index, we now have Q1 results 88.5% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these companies are up +21.4% on +9.7% higher revenues, with 60.5% beating EPS estimates and 72.2% beating revenue estimates. In addition to earnings and revenue growth, revenue surprises are notably tracking above historical periods for the small caps.
• For the quarter as whole, total S&P 600 earnings are expected to be up +18.2% on +9.8% higher revenues. We have more details about small-cap data on page 28 of the full report.
• For full-year 2018, total earnings for the S&P 500 index are expected to be up +19.4% on +5.8% higher revenues. For full-year 2019, earnings are expected to be up +9.4% on +4.4% higher revenues.
• The implied ‘EPS’ for the index, calculated using current 2018 P/E of 17.5X and index close, as of May 17th , is $156.01. Using the same methodology, the index ‘EPS’ works out to $170.70 for 2019 (P/E of 15.9X) and $187.21 for 2020 (P/E of 14.5X). The multiples for 2018 and 2019 have been calculated using the index’s total market cap and aggregate bottom-up earnings for each year.
Retail Sector Scorecard
With results from Wal-Mart (WMT - Free Report) , Macy’s (M - Free Report) and Home Depot (HD - Free Report) out now, we have Q1 results from the equivalent of 84.2% of the sector’s market capitalization in the in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these Retail sector companies that have reported results are up +22.1% from the same period last year on +10.1% higher revenues, with 72.7% beating EPS estimates and 63.6% beating revenue estimates.
Please note that the Zacks Retail sector includes the online vendors and restaurant players in addition to ‘traditional’ brick-and-mortar players.
The comparison charts above show that while growth (both earnings as well as revenues) is tracking notably above historical periods, the proportion of positive EPS surprises is in-line with historical periods and revenue surprises are tracking below the 4-quarter average (but above the 12-quarter average).
With respect to growth, Amazon’s blockbuster numbers, particularly on the revenues front, has a big role in the very strong growth picture at this stage. Amazon’s Q1 earnings increased +125% on +42.9% higher revenues, with the net dollar increase in the online retailer’s revenues an impressive $15.3 billion.
The right-hand chart that compares the sector’s Q1 earnings and revenue growth on an ex-Amazon basis shows that growth still compares favorably with other periods even without the online giant’s considerable contribution.
Weak Revisions Trend
While growth in Q1 has been very strong, analysts have been hesitant to raise their estimates for Q2. The fact is that aggregate expectations for the quarter have barely budged since the quarter got underway.
This revisions trend is in contrast to the very positive revisions trend we saw ahead of the start of the Q1 earnings season. A big part of the positive revisions we saw at the start of the year was directly tied to the impact of tax cuts. But the estimated trend had been moving favorably since the second half of 2017 and we expected some of that to show up in estimates for Q2. This didn’t happen, as the above chart shows.
There is not much change to estimates for the second half of the year either.
Note: Sheraz Mian manages the Zacks equity research department. He is an acknowledged earnings expert whose commentaries and analyses appear on Zacks.com and in the print and electronic media. His weekly earnings related articles include Earnings Trendsand Earnings Preview. He manages the Zacks Top 10 and Focus List portfolios and writes the Weekly Market Analysis article for Zacks Premium subscribers.
Zacks Editor-in-Chief Goes "All In" on This Stock
Full disclosure, Kevin Matras now has more of his own money in one particular stock than in any other. He believes in its short-term profit potential and also in its prospects to more than double by 2019. Today he reveals and explains his surprising move in a new Special Report.
Download it free >>
Note: Sheraz Mian manages the Zacks equity research department. He is an acknowledged earnings expert whose commentaries and analyses appear on Zacks.com and in the print and electronic media. His weekly earnings related articles include Earnings Trends and Earnings Preview. He manages the Zacks Top 10 and Focus List portfolios and writes the Weekly Market Analysis article for Zacks Premium subscribers.
If you want an email notification each time Sheraz Mian publishes a new article, please click here>>>
About Zacks Equity Research
Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.
Continuous analyst coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.
Strong Stocks that Should Be in the News
Many are little publicized and fly under the Wall Street radar. They're virtually unknown to the general public. Yet today's 220 Zacks Rank #1 "Strong Buys" were generated by the stock-picking system that has nearly tripled the market from 1988 through 2015. Its average gain has been a stellar +26% per year. See these high-potential stocks free >>
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.