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Allegheny (ATI) Q2 Earnings: Is Another Beat in the Cards?

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Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI - Free Report) is scheduled to release second-quarter 2018 results on Jul 24, before the market opens.

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 33.3% by posting adjusted earnings of 32 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 24 cents.

Sales climbed roughly 13% year over year to $979 million in the first quarter. The figure also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $950 million.

Notably, Allegheny outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters with an average positive surprise of 38.7%.

Will the company surprise investors again or is it heading for a possible pullback? Let’s see how things have shaped up for the forthcoming announcement.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model shows that Allegheny is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is the case here as you will see below:

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Allegheny for the second quarter is +2.34%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are currently pegged at 37 cents and 36 cents, respectively. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Allegheny currently carries a Zacks Rank #3, which when combined with a positive ESP, make us reasonably confident of an earnings beat. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Note that we caution against Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Factors at Play

During first-quarter earnings call, Allegheny stated that it expects continued operating margin improvement and revenue growth in its HPMC unit in 2018 from improved asset utilization and aerospace market demand growth. It also expects Flat Rolled Products (“FRP”) unit to capitalize on the operational improvements and A&T Stainless joint venture and growth in differentiated products.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for consolidated revenues for the second quarter is $1,024 million, reflecting an expected increase of around 16.4% year over year and 4.6% sequentially.

Allegheny’s FRP division benefited from strong market demand in the first quarter and the favorable market conditions are expected to continue in second-quarter 2018. The company expects a sequential improvement in raw material surcharges for nickel and ferrochrome on current market conditions. It projects higher nickel price-driven surcharges in the second quarter along with higher ferrochrome prices.

However, Allegheny expects a sequential decline in the revenues from the nickel sheet products in the second quarter due to a completion of pipeline repair projects in the oil and gas side.

With respect to Allegheny’s joint venture (JV) projects, the company nearly completed an expansion at its STAL JV as of the end of first-quarter 2018 that is likely to boost additional capacity by roughly 50%. The JV currently operates two facilities in Shanghai, China to produce Precision Rolled Strip Products. Moreover, the company also noted that Chinese domestic end-market demand for STAL products were strong across several markets.

Moreover, Allegheny continues to support production ramp up of its A&T Stainless JV, despite uncertainties associated with trade tariff actions. Notably, the company filed Section 232 tariff exclusion request on behalf of the JV in March 2018.

The A&T Stainless JV improves the cost efficiencies of the company’s Hot-Rolling and Processing Facility (HRPF), which is used to produce FRP for various defense applications in the United States.

Shares of Allegheny have gained 2.4% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 5.6% growth.



Other Stocks Poised to Beat Estimates

Here are some other companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Eastman Chemical Company (EMN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.25% and holds a Zacks Rank #2.  

Ingevity Corporation (NGVT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.52% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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