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Ameican Electric (AEP) Up 0.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for American Electric Power (AEP - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is AEP due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

American Electric Q2 Earnings Top on Favorable Weather

American Electric Power reported second-quarter 2018 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.01, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 88 cents per share by 14.8%. The bottom line also surpassed the prior-year earnings of 75 cents by 34.7%.

The company benefited from improving economic conditions in its service territories, favorable weather and the investments made to strengthen its transmission systems.

Including one-time items, the company reported GAAP earnings of $1.07 per share compared with the year-ago quarter’s figure of 76 cents.

Total Revenues

American Electric’s second-quarter revenues of $4 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.83 billion by 4.5%. The reported figure was also higher than the year-ago quarter’s revenues of $3.6 billion by 11.1%.

Quarterly Highlights

Operating expenses in the reported quarter were $1,912.6 million compared with $1,649.7 million a year ago.

Operating income in the quarter was $741.4 million, up 0.7% from $736.6 million a year ago.

Segmental Performance

Vertically Integrated Utility Operations: Operating earnings in the quarter increased to $276.8 million from $120.8 million a year ago.

Transmission & Distribution Utilities: Operating earnings were $114.0 million in the quarter, up from $111.2 million a year ago.

AEP Transmission Holdco: This segment generated operating income of $101.1 million, down from $128.4 million recorded in the second quarter of 2017.

Generation and Marketing: Operating earnings were $26.5 million, up from $21.8 million recorded in the year-ago quarter.

Corporate & Other: The segment generated operating loss of $20.1 million in the second quarter compared with $11.8 million recorded in the year-ago quarter.

Financial Update

As of Jun 30, 2018, American Electric had $211.2 million in cash and cash equivalents compared with $214.6 million on Dec 31, 2017.

Long-term debt was $19.75 billion as of Jun 30, 2018 compared with $19.42 billion on Dec 31, 2017.

Cash flow from operations was $2,006.8 million in the first six months of 2018 compared with $1,717.0 million in the year-ago period.

Guidance

American Electric reaffirmed 2018 operating earnings guidance in the range of $3.75-$3.95.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -5.75% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, AEP has an average Growth Score of C, however its momentum is doing a lot better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Based on our scores, the stock is primarily suitable for momentum investors while also being suitable for those looking for value and to a lesser degree growth.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, AEP has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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